Marketing Review — Summer 2008 - (Page 10) ment of new pharmaceuticals and medical technologies that are making it possible to prevent or cure diseases that would have been fatal to earlier generations. Medical advances that slow the fundamental process of aging now seem to be within reach. (This is a controversial issue within the medical community, but the evidence appears quite strong.) Such treatments could well help today’s younger generations live routinely beyond the century mark. ASSESSMENT: See the assessment for Trend 1. IMPLICATIONS: Global demand for products and services aimed at the elderly will grow quickly in the immediate future, but this trend may pass as geriatric medicine improves the health of the elderly. Developed countries may face social instability as a result of competition for resources between retirement-age Boomers and their working-age children and grandchildren. At the present rate of growth, public spending on retirement benefits in the United States and other developed countries could be onefourth of GDP by 2050, even as the number of workers available to support each retiree declines sharply. Barring dramatic advances in geriatric medicine, the cost of health care is destined to skyrocket throughout the developed lands. This could create the long-expected crisis in health-care financing and delivery. However, dramatic advances in geriatric medicine are all but inevitable. Paying the high cost of new drugs, technologies, and therapies will reduce the overall cost of caring for patients who otherwise would have suffered from disorders delayed, eased, or cured by such advances. In the end, these reductions will offset many of the expected increases, leaving the average health-care bill in the developed lands much lower than the doomsayers predict. Any practical extension of the human life span will prolong health as well and will reduce the incidence of late-life disorders such as cancer, heart disease, arthritis, and possibly Alzheimer’s disease. This would dramatically reduce demand for products and services in the senior market, at least in the developed world. FI believes this development is nearer than even many researchers expect. Healthier aging in the developed world may offer new hope to the world’s poorer, sicker lands. Faced with declining growth in their pharmaceutical industries, western nations—and particularly the United States—are likely to subsidize research and treatment for diseases that burden the poor countries of Africa and Asia. This will give those lands their first real prospects for economic growth and improved quality of life. IMPLICATIONS FOR HOSPITALITY AND TRAVEL: In the developed lands, aging represents the opportunity to accumulate wealth, and the elderly are the wealthiest segment of society. Healthier lifestyles and better geriatric medicine ensure that wealthy seniors are as interested in travel as they are able to afford it. Aging Baby Boomers—already the largest segment of cruisers—will be a ready market, both for traditional highend cruises and for adventure travel and other niche vacation activities that would have been beyond the physical abilities of earlier generations. Well into their 70s, they will retain their youthful interest in pastimes such as skin diving, hiking, and other low-impact activities with high “experience value.” Catering to the growing population of older travelers will 10 3 require adaptation from the hospitality and travel industries—doors and plumbing with handles easily operated by arthritic hands; large, easy-to-read signs and menus; foods with strong flavors to stimulate failing palates; and fire and security systems that flash lights for the hard-of-hearing; and comprehensive medical facilities, especially for cruiseships. Special tours and other activities should be ranked for the amount of walking, energy, or agility they require, so that older customers can easily choose pastimes within their abilities. It may also be necessary to increase staffing slightly, to provide older guests with extra help in checking in, coping with luggage, arranging for local transportation, and dealing with other chores that younger patrons could handle on their own. Mature travelers tend to be experienced travelers. Many are unforgiving of lapses in service, inferior facilities, or excessively familiar tours and activities. They also want to feel that they are recognized (especially if they are repeat customers), respected, and catered to. Despite their relative wealth as a group, many seniors are extremely careful with their money. This will further raise the demand for vacation packages that are comfortable, staffed by attentive personnel, and cheap. Seniors also represent a valuable workforce that hospitality and travel businesses will tap, with considerable benefit. Post-retirement workers tend to be diligent, well spoken, and habitually courteous to guests— unlike some younger workers, who need to hone their grammatical skill or practice in traditional good manners. 3) The elderly population is growing dramatically throughout the world. Worldwide, the elderly (age 65 and older) numbered 440 million and represented 6 percent of the global population in 2002. Their numbers will nearly double by 2020 (to over 9 percent of total population) and more than triple by 2050 (to nearly 17 percent). In the developed world, people age 60 and over made up one-fifth of the population in 2000 and will grow to one-third in the next half century. Throughout the developed world, population growth is fastest among the elderly. In the United States, there are 4.2 million people age 85 and up. By 2050, there will be 19.3 million. In Europe, the United States, and Japan, the aged also form the wealthiest segment of society. ASSESSMENT: Again, this is a demographic trend, difficult to derail and unlikely to change while the massive Baby Boom generation remains on the scene. IMPLICATIONS: Not counting immigration, the ratio of working-age people to retirees needing their support will drop dramatically in the United States, Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan, and other countries. This represents a burden on national economies that will be difficult to sustain under current medical and social security systems. In the next two to three decades, shortages of health workers will loom large in “aging vulnerable” countries. The United States in particular will need at least twice as many physicians specializing in geriatrics as its current 9,000, as well as half a 55 TRENDS FOR TRAVEL & HOSPITALITY • SUMMER 2008 SB10068509I-001/TROY AOSSEY/GETTY IMAGES
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