Marketing Review — Summer 2008 - (Page 19) 12 11 11) Despite some xenophobic reactions to immigrants, there is growing acceptance of diversity. Migration is mixing disparate peoples and forcing them to find ways to coexist peacefully and productively. Because of this, the interaction of diverse cultures will continue to grow, both internationally and intra-nationally, throughout much of the world. The Internet and other technologies promote long-distance communication and build links between distant, and disparate, people. The globalization of business is having a similar impact. However, in many countries there are powerful reactions against these changes. The growth of the German neoNazi movement after unification in 1992 is one obvious example. American hostility toward undocumented aliens may be viewed as another. ASSESSMENT: This trend applies most clearly to the West, where it will continue for as long as we can foresee. In other regions, including Japan and large parts of the Muslim world, it remains weak, if it exists at all. IMPLICATIONS: Groups with highly varied customs, languages, and histories of necessity will develop ways to coexist peacefully. Nonetheless, local conflicts will continue to erupt in societies where xenophobia is common. Companies will hire ever more minority workers and will be expected to adapt to their values and needs. Much of the burden of accommodating foreign-born residents will continue to fall on employers, who must make room for their languages and cultures in the workplace. Public schools and libraries must find more effective ways to educate this future workforce. IMPLICATIONS FOR HOSPITALITY AND TRAVEL: Growing contact between countries and cultures in the United States and Europe should stimulate further demand for travel to foreign lands, where visitors can learn more about the cultures they have met, and begun to accept, at home. Companies in all industries, including hospitality and travel, will hire ever more minority workers and will be expected to adapt to their values and needs. Much of the burden of accommodating foreign-born residents will continue to fall on employers, who must both help them adapt to their new environment and make room for their languages and cultures in the workplace. The more prosperous immigrant groups, such as those from Asia and the Middle East in the U.S., also represent valuable markets for specialized travel services. Expect growing demand especially for services aimed at the needs of Muslim SUMMER 2008 • 55 TRENDS FOR TRAVEL & HOSPITALITY developing world. India is an exception, because growing literacy has given women the chance to earn income outside the home and, with it, gain value other than as wives and mothers. IMPLICATIONS FOR HOSPITALITY AND TRAVEL: There are relatively few implications for these industries. Hospitality and travel operators have traditionally depended on women for much of their workforce, and especially in critical guestcontact roles. As a result, they have been relatively willing to pay women well and promote them into management positions comparable to those occupied by men. travelers from Europe and the United States. Hotels, restaurants, and cruise lines all will have to be prepared to serve the special needs of religious, ethnic, and cultural minorities. 12) Tourism, vacationing, and travel (especially international) continue to grow with each passing year. International tourism grew by more than 6 percent in the first half of 2007, thanks in part to global prosperity. By 2020, international tourist arrivals are expected to reach 1.6 billion annually, up from 842 million in 2006. By 2020, according to the World Trade Organization, 100 million Chinese will fan out across the globe, replacing Americans, Japanese, and Germans as the world’s most numerous travelers. Some 50 million Indian tourists will join them. ASSESSMENT: Travel seems to be in the DNA of the middle and upper economic classes. This trend will continue so long as national economies continue to generate new prosperity for the formerly poor. IMPLICATIONS: Travel will grow by at least 5 percent per year for the foreseeable future. The tourism industry will create 3.3 million new jobs worldwide. Jobs dependent on tourism will comprise nearly 14 percent of the global workforce. Direct employment will not grow quite as quickly, but it will be up 1.7 percent annually, to nearly 87.5 million jobs, while indirect employment will account for some 260 million jobs around the world. This will bring major opportunities for national economies in Southeast Asia and Africa, where Chinese and Indian tourists can take quick, inexpensive vacations. IMPLICATIONS FOR HOSPITALITY AND TRAVEL: Tourism offers growing opportunities for out-of-the-way destinations that have not yet cashed in on the boom. This will make it an important industry for still more developing countries. American domestic tourism will continue to grow by an average of 2.3 percent per year through at least 2011. The fastest growth will be seen in pioneering regions. Intranationally, air travel in China is expanding rapidly, with the Indian air market lagging only a few years behind. Internationally, expect the most immediate growth to appear in the Middle East, where travelers will visit neighboring countries and, to a lesser extent, Europe. In the longer run, the fastest growth, and by far the greatest, will flow to Europe and the United States, thanks to vacationers from the newly prosperous middle classes of China and India. The cruise segment is expected to grow at approximately the same rate as the travel market at large. By 2015, even India and China are likely to get into this market. Cruise ships will continue to lure retirees. Some liners are offering full-time residency—creating new options for assisted living arrangements. Travel is said to broaden the mind. It surely broadens palates. As Generations X and Dot-com visit out-of-the-way destinations, they are bringing home tastes for foreign cuisines their more traditional elders never sampled. Over the next 20 years, 19
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