Marketing Review — Summer 2008 - (Page 58) 55 58 national terrorists. The next generation of terrorists is now being trained in Iraq and Pakistan. As the American wars in those regions prove unsustainable, the most zealous among them will continue their war against their chosen enemies. Most will return to their home countries to attack local rulers. Others will focus on the United States and its allies in the Iraq war. All of them will continue to find hotels and restaurants easy targets with high publicity value. Some may attempt to attack passenger aircraft, while others will aim their bombs at public transportation. A few may even choose cruise ships, conference centers, or casinos as their victims of choice. Terrorism will become more common in the future, not less so, and the hospitality and travel industries will remain appealingly vulnerable to attack. 55) International exposure includes a growing risk of terrorist attack. Terrorism has continued to grow around the world as the Iraq war proceeds, even as the rate of violence in Iraq itself has, at least temporarily, declined. State-sponsored terrorism has nearly vanished, as tougher sanctions have made it more trouble than it was worth. However, nothing will prevent small, local political organizations and special-interest groups from using terror to promote their causes. These organizations have found inspiration in the successes of Al Qaeda, and many have found common cause. The most dangerous terrorist groups are no longer motivated primarily by specific political goals, but by generalized, virulent hatred based on religion and culture. On balance, the amount of terrorist activity in the world will continue to rise, not decline, in the next 10 years. This was seen in corrections to the State Department’s April 2004 report on terrorism, which originally seemed to show a sharp drop in terrorist incidents. In fact, terrorist attacks had risen sharply since the invasion of Iraq, both in number and in severity. ASSESSMENT: This trend is unlikely to change in the next decade and relatively unlikely to change in the next 20 years. A permanent end to the international terrorist threat would require a broad philosophical and cultural change in Islam that makes terrorists pariahs in their own communities. No such change is on the horizon. IMPLICATIONS: Terrorism against the West is likely to grow, not decline, when fighters trained and blooded in the Iraq war are able to turn their attention elsewhere. Western corporations may have to devote more of their resources to self-defense, while accepting smaller than-expected profits from operations in the developing countries. Like the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, the American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania before them, and the bombings of the Madrid rail system and London subways since then, any attacks on major corporate facilities will be designed for maximum destruction and casualties. Bloodshed for its own sake has become a characteristic of modern terrorism. Where terrorism is most common, countries will find it diffi- cult to attract foreign investment, no matter how attractive their resources. Though Islamic terrorists form only a tiny part of the Muslim community, they have a large potential for disruption throughout the region from Turkey to the Philippines. The economies of the industrialized nations could be thrown into recession at any time by another terrorist event on the scale of September 11. This is particularly true of the United States. The impact would be greatest if the incident discouraged travel, as the September 11 attacks did. The U.S. economy is being affected already by American anti-terrorism measures. Since Washington began to photograph incoming travelers and to require more extensive identification from them, tourism to the United States is off by some 30 percent. The number of foreign students coming to American universities has declined by a similar amount. IMPLICATIONS FOR HOSPITALITY AND TRAVEL: Until the terrorist problem is brought under control—probably not for at least a generation—tourism to the more volatile parts of the Middle East will be a relatively hard sell for Western vacationers, despite the appeal of historic places. This stigma is likely to spread almost instantaneously to any destination that suffers a major terrorist incident. That threat is likely to be one of the great unpredictable risks of the international tourist industry for at least the next 20 years. Terrorist hazards are not limited to Muslim lands. The communist insurgency in Nepal, which now seems to be winding down, has significantly inhibited vacation travel from China and India. American-owned facilities, and those where Americans congregate, will be favorite targets for many terrorists now being trained in Iraq and Pakistan and will have to devote more of their budgets to security. Disgruntled employees and former employees are the single greatest threat, because they are familiar with security procedures and weaknesses. Therefore, some of the most important security measures will be invisible to customers, but highly intrusive for staff. These may include comprehensive background checks for new hires, much as airports need to screen such behind-the-scenes personnel as baggage handlers and fuel-truck drivers. Those recently fired are a frequent source of problems. 55 TRENDS FOR TRAVEL & HOSPITALITY • SUMMER 2008
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