Insights - November/December 2017 - 25

FREIGHT - from page 23

"Consumers are spending again."

should be in the 3-4 percent range.
Intermodal's strength should extend
into next year. Though comparisons
are tougher, [2018] gains could meet
- or beat 2017."
Improving freight statistics
reflect stronger fundamentals, such
as shipments of machinery, food
and beverages and other products
Meil
as well as better conditions in the
housing and energy industries, said economist James
Meil, principal, industry analysis for ACT Research.
"We are in a good way, and probably
in a better way for 2018," Meil said. "There
are a number of good signs out there. 2017
turned out to be better than expected."

- James Meil, principal, industry analysis, ACT Research
3.2 percent year-over-year increase in September's shipments
index is yet another data point that confirms the gradual
upswing, according to the Cass report that was written by Donald
Broughton, founder of Broughton Capital. The spending index
has improved by an average of nearly 6 percent over the past six
months.
"Viewing the Cass Freight Index on a nominal basis shows
how positive the trajectory has been in the last eight months. It
is still below levels achieved in the 2012-2015 period, but if the
current rate of improvement continues, it appears poised to reach

'Forecasts are Optimistic'
"Consumers are spending again," Meil
added, noting that holiday buying forecasts
are optimistic, buoyed by consumer
confidence levels that are the highest
since 2004, according to surveys by the
University of Michigan and the Conference
Board.
Stability, and the improving economies
elsewhere, are a part of the favorable
picture in North America.
"Canada and the U.S. aren't alone in
doing better," Meil said. "The European
economy is doing very, very well. China's
economy is OK; it's returned to normalcy."
As a result, Meil said, the stage is set
for further U.S. export growth at the same
time that oil prices have become more
stable. That fact gives businesses more
confidence in market stability and sets
the stage for more capital investments,
compared to the wild swings of oil prices
that topped $100 a barrel in 2014 and then
cratered at $28 a barrel less than two years
later.
American Trucking Associations'
tonnage index averaged 7.7 percent growth
for the most recently reported three-month
period between August and October.
"Freight has been improving," said
ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, while
citing still another reason why shipments
should increase. "Going forward, rebuilding
from those hurricanes and other natural
disasters like the wildfires in California will
add to freight demand."
The Cass Freight Index of shipments
and expenditures, based on freight
payments by customers using all modes of
transportation, also showed strength. The

KEEPING YOUR FREIGHT
ON THE RIGHT TRACK
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November/December 2017 | Intermodal Insights

25
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Insights - November/December 2017
