Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 4th Quarter 2016 - 10

Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics
Current Trucking Indicators
OCT

DEC

Actual

13,674 19,285 21,228

Y/Y % Change

-46.9%

17.7% -23.3%

National Avg. Diesel/Gal (EIA)
Actual

$2.454 $2.439

Y/Y % Change

-2.6%

-1.1%

Comments
Class 8 orders remained
steady. Shipments are
declining, but inventories are
falling.
Oil prices fell in November, but
moved back above $50 in
December.

Driver Labor Availability Index (1992=100)
Actual

125.8

125.6

M/M % Change

0.1%

-0.2%

Y/Y % Change

1.7%

1.5%

Source: FTR Associates

Short-Term Trucking Outlook
History
16Q4
97.7%

Active Truck Utilization

Forecast
17Q1

17Q2

17Q3

17Q4

97.7%

98.5%

99.6%

100.0%

Cl. 8 Tractor/Trailer Loadings Originated
000s of Loadings

146,890

147,707

148,566

149,630

150,675

% Change, Q/Q

0.7%

0.6%

0.7%

% Change, Y/Y

2.9%

2.7%

2.8%

2.6%

Index (1992=100)

125.5

125.7

125.6

126.4

126.3

% Change, Q/Q

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.1%

0.6%

-0.1%

% Change, Y/Y

1.3%

0.6%

142.2

142.9

145.3

147.2

151.0

Red

Critical

Driver Labor Availability Index

Truck Share of Employment Index
Index (1992=100)
Driver Labor Hiring Conditions
Green/Yellow/Red
Source: FTR Associates

Truck Loadings Originated
9%
8%

U.S., Canada and Mexico
Domestic Economies
U.S. GDP results for Q4 were not
available at the time this report was
written, but expectations are that GDP
will have gained roughly 2.2% on an
annualized basis in Q4. Some sectors
of the industrial sectors are still weak,
but an improving consumer position
is expected to contribute to GDP. Job

NOV

Class 8 Retail Sales (Ward's)

Yr/Yr % Change

the Q4 2016. This was even before any
productivity effects from new regulations were factored in. While the driver
supply is expected to stay challenging
throughout the forecast horizon, the
anticipated tightness will stem mainly
from regulatory changes and their consequences on productivity rather than
pure growth. Eventually the market
will adjust, as it always does, resulting in higher driver wages and leading
to higher truck rates. However, there
will be a significant issue in the near
term regarding the ability of the driver
acquisition pipeline to attract, qualify
and train a sufficient number of drivers
to meet the near-term need.
Crude oil prices have been relatively
stable, but at levels higher than were
seen earlier in the year. The global
supply equation for crude oil has been
fundamentally changed due to the
refinement of fracking technology and
a dramatic improvement in its efficiency. Although the OPEC nations are
trying to support higher prices through
restriction in their pumping activities,
the U.S. drillers have now become
the swing capacity, with the ability
to quickly bring on additional supply
when the price begins to rise. In effect
their activities are serving as a natural
cap on prices. Consequently, dramatic
increase in prices are not expected,
barring a catastrophic event such as a
Middle East war.
The domestic intermodal environment is turning the corner from challenging to favorable. Assuming that
intermodal service remains strong
and the economy is not disrupted,
continued tightening in truck capacity throughout the year will result in
improvement for intermodal prospects,
which will culminate in a challenging
fourth quarter for shippers and a robust
intermodal peak season.

7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%

0%
-1%
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Source: FTR Associates

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