Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - 9
but now supportive anti-regulation
members of Congress have
introduced several measures in
the House of Representatives
that could potentially delay ELD
implementation. Given the press
of other business in Congress,
the fact that ELD implementation
enjoyed bipartisan support in
Congress previously and further,
that a substantial portion of the
trucking industry is actually pro-ELD,
it is unlikely that these "hail Mary"
attempts will get any traction and
the implementation will go ahead as
scheduled.
The driver supply has had
very little change thus far in the
second quarter of this year. Even
as tractor/trailer loads have
increased over 4% y/y in Q2, the
supply of drivers had edged up
by about a half-percent thru May.
This mismatch, if continued, will
tend to exacerbate the negative
productivity consequences of ELD
implementation.
Tractor/Trailer Loads Orig. - YTD 2017 vs. YTD 2016
Actual
Length-of-Haul
YTD
2016
YTD
2017
Pct.
Change
<125 Miles
48,593,224
52,179,246
7.4%
125-299 Miles
68,516,218
70,539,633
3.0%
300-549 Miles
129,567,960
133,337,526
2.9%
550+ Miles
41,810,909
43,763,659
4.7%
Grand Total
288,488,311
299,820,064
3.9%
Heavy-Duty Truck Utilization Rate
U.S. CLASS 8 TRUCKS - ACTIVE CAPACITY IN USE
HISTORICAL AVERAGE
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
75%
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
2016
2017
Although crude oil prices remain
a bit higher than a year ago, for
many months prices have been
Source for all charts on this page: FTR Associates
quite stable in the range of $50
per barrel. With the economics
layer the potential for disruptive changes in trade policy.
of fracked domestic crude continuing to improve, the U.S.
Setting aside these late-year exposures, our outlook is
drillers are providing a natural cap on global oil prices. Any
unchanged. Economic growth is expected to continue at a
time tightness appears in the market, U.S. supply quickly
slow, steady pace and with it, the demand for truck transport.
increases in reaction. Consequently there is little prospect of
With fleets holding capacity steady and a constricted driver
large increases in the price of diesel for the balance of this
supply, fleet utilization should continue to climb throughout
year, barring a "black swan" -high magnitude/low probability
the year, culminating in essentially 100% utilization during
- event such as a substantial conflict in the Middle East or a
peak season.
governance crisis in Saudi Arabia.
Although the contract trucking and intermodal sectors
The economic outlook continues to best be described
remain
"rate-challenged", the groundwork is being laid for
as "steady as she goes". If there is a silver lining to years of
intermodal expansion. Evidently, based on evidence thus far
slow growth, it's that it has been difficult for the economy to
this year, the expansion will be reflected in better volume
accumulate the structural imbalances that, when corrected,
growth prior to any substantial progress on rates. And
ultimately result in economic downturns. Most likely the
assuming that the effort on the part of some Congressional
biggest downside risk currently is political. The potential
Republicans to intervene in the ELD mandate process
for stimulus to the economy based on to tax reform or a
will fall by the wayside, growth is expected to accelerate
meaningful infrastructure program has receded, while the
in the domestic intermodal sector as the date for ELD
chances for gridlock concerning the budget and raising the
implementation approaches.
debt ceiling this fall have increased. On top of this one can
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics Report | Second Quarter 2017 | © IANA 2017
9
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017
Key Take-Aways
Second Quarter 2017 Rail Volume Results
Seasonally Adjusted Intermodal Volume
Key Corridor Results
Key Corridor Growth
Intermodal Outlook
Intermodal Long-Term Trends
Second Quarter 2017 IMC Results
Trucking Industry Outlook
U.S., Canada and Mexico Domestic Economies
Equipment Moves by Type, Ownership and Size
Eastern Canada
Mountain Central
Midwest
Mexico
Northeast
Northwest
South Central
Southeast
Southwest
Western Canada
Major Intermodal Corridors
Data Providers
Region Map
Notes to Report
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Key Take-Aways
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Second Quarter 2017 Rail Volume Results
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - 3
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Key Corridor Results
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Intermodal Outlook
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Intermodal Long-Term Trends
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Second Quarter 2017 IMC Results
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Trucking Industry Outlook
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - 9
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - U.S., Canada and Mexico Domestic Economies
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - 11
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Equipment Moves by Type, Ownership and Size
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Mountain Central
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Mexico
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Northwest
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Southeast
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Western Canada
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Major Intermodal Corridors
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Region Map
Intermodal Market Trends & Statistics - 2nd Quarter 2017 - Notes to Report
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