Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008 - (Page 12)

EDITED B Y T H E O D O R A A . B L A N C H F I E L D Counterintelligence GOP Retirement Woes eing in the congressional minority has never been the proverbial barrel of monkeys. Prospects of reversing the GOP’s 2006 fall before at least 2010 seem dim, and a slew of retirements is making a bad situation worse for Republicans. Even though Democrats hold the thinnest of Senate majorities, Republicans had viewed the House—with its 30 freshmen Democratic members—as their best opportunity to regain power. No more. The GOP’s comeback odds in the House have been taking a beating as retirements pile up and strong potential challengers save battle for another day. “I think [retirements] make it incredibly more difﬁcult” for Republicans, says Colby government professor L. Sandy Maisel. “The Democrats only have two or three freshmen who are seriously threatened … so they really can have an offensive strategy.” A yawning fundraising gap fuels the Democrats’ ability to play offense. After the third quarter of 2007, the Democratic Senatorial and Congressional Campaign Committees combined reported over $51 million cash on hand, while their GOP counterparts had a shade under $10 million. “Republicans are going to have to spread their resources very thin over a wide range of competitive races,” says Dave Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. “Or it could mean that they draw back on the number of races that they target. The ﬁnancial disparity allows Democrats to be bullies.” So Democrats will be able to staff up and make big, late media buys in the most competitive races. B 96% 47% Portion of students polled in 75 colleges nationwide who said they intend to vote in the 2008 presidential election [Survey conducted by American University, November 2007] Portion of 18-to-24-year-olds who actually voted in the 2004 presidential election Talking Points Women: Get the Message The 2006 mid-terms saw 11 women run for governor— more than ever before—and six of them win. But there are still only nine current female governors. What can boost those numbers? Maybe it’s these new messaging Gov. Sarah Palin, tips for women candidates: Alaska • Don’t emphasize terrorism (voters listen for male voices on that topic), but talk instead about overall homeland security. Women have an edge when they discuss things like funding state health departments and better equipping ﬁrst responders. • Avoid hawkish language like “hunting down the terrorists” and instead focus on the impact on people at home and consensus-building—areas in which voters ﬁnd women candidates more convincing. • Play up ethics issues, since polls show voters believe women candidates are more honest then their male counterparts. Now THAT’S a timely message. (Source: 2007 study by the Barbara Lee Family Foundation) Republican Targets Wasserman says the party’s funding advantage also lets them make serious plays for seats once considered safely Republican, like the Illinois seat recently vacated by former Rep. Dennis Hastert and the seat of Rep. Jim Ramstad, R-Minn. Another major Republican retirement is Rep. Jim McCrery, R-La., the ranking member on the powerful Ways and Means Committee who also co-chaired CHOMP, a group that raises money for Republican challengers to Democratic incumbents. In the Senate, the GOP is already defending 22 of 34 races. Six of those are key open seats like those of Sens. Wayne Allard of Colorado, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, and John Warner of Virginia. 12 Politics January 2008 Travis Foster

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008

Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008 Contents GOP Retirement Woes Getting Girls to Think Politics Movers & Shakers: Karen Hanretty If I Had It To Do Over: Mike McCurry Eve Fairbanks Column Cover Story: Mike Huckabee Hopping the Pond GOP: The Next Generation 5 “Truths” About Women Voters Reds & Blues: States in the Spotlight High Road/Campaign Doc Bookshelf Dick Morris Column John Zogby Column Techbytes Playbook Coming & Going: Who's Where Campaign Sign-ups Marketplace Quips & Slips

Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008

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