Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008 - (Page 13)

Republicans’ blessing? Their most competitive races are outside expensive media markets Democratic Targets Democrats are facing their own challenging races, even if they aren’t as numerous. Wasserman puts the number of vulnerable Democratic House freshmen around ﬁve to seven. They include Nick Lampson of Texas, Jerry McNerney of California, Nancy Boyda of Kansas, Tim Mahoney of Florida and Chris Carney of Pennsylvania.All ﬁve “sit in districts that are substantially Republican and face serious Republican challengers on the ground,” he says. But Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., may offer Republicans their only clear shot at an upper house takeover. Her opponent, state treasurer and former Democrat John Kennedy, has held a small lead in polls recently. Republicans George W. Bush George W. Bush Bob Dole George H.W. Bush George H.W. Bush Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan Gerald Ford Year 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 W on x x x x x x x x x x x x January 2008 Democrats John Kerry Al Gore Bill Clinton Bill Clinton Michael Dukakis Walter Mondale Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 x x x x x x Strategic Recruitment To make up for their money shortfall, Republicans are turning to self-funding candidates. Athlete-turned-businessman Steve Greenberg is the party’s pick to unseat Rep. . Melissa Bean in Illinois, for example. Also in Illinois, dairy magnate Jim Oberweis is largely funding his own bid to succeed Hastert. Republicans have been unable, however, to ﬁnd strong challengers for freshmen like Reps. Heath Shuler, D-N.C., John Yarmuth, D-Ky., or Dave Loebsack, D-Iowa., likely leaving such races uncompetitive. iStockphoto.com W on x x x x x Six could become seven with Sen. Ted Stevens’ fate hanging in the balance. At 87 and facing possible indictment, the Alaska Republican may be on his way out. “I think if he leaves that seat becomes vulnerable,” Maisel says. Republicans have a small blessing in that their most competitive Senate races— including New Hampshire, Oregon, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and Maine—all lie outside the top media markets, making them less expensive to run. There is still time for Republicans to turn around the situation, but retirements and GOP unpopularity are creating a negative feedback loop that’s hard to break. “The more people who retire, the more difﬁcult it appears for the GOP in terms of winning control again, and the more attractive leaving Congress for another position will be,” said University of Maryland politics professor Paul Herrnson. —By Justin Schardin and Theodora A. Blanchﬁeld Do Iowa and New Hampshire Really Matter? If you think history repeats itself … you bet. Only once since 1976 has the eventual nominee of the Republican or Democratic party failed to win at least one of the showdowns (that was “Comeback Kid” Bill Clinton in 1992). And a majority won both state contests. Of course, the new primary schedule changes everything. Right, Rudy? IA Politics 13 NH http://iStockphoto.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008

Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008 Contents GOP Retirement Woes Getting Girls to Think Politics Movers & Shakers: Karen Hanretty If I Had It To Do Over: Mike McCurry Eve Fairbanks Column Cover Story: Mike Huckabee Hopping the Pond GOP: The Next Generation 5 “Truths” About Women Voters Reds & Blues: States in the Spotlight High Road/Campaign Doc Bookshelf Dick Morris Column John Zogby Column Techbytes Playbook Coming & Going: Who's Where Campaign Sign-ups Marketplace Quips & Slips

Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008

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