Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008 - (Page 54)

Dick Morris Can Florida Save the Front Runners? Results there will set the table for Super Tuesday, most likely restoring Clinton and Giuliani to primacy. J anuary shapes up as a tough month for the two frontrunners, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. It will probably start with defeats for both in Iowa. For Giuliani, it will likely be a humiliating battering. He’s on course to ﬁnish third or lower. For Clinton, the Iowa result may ﬁnd her sinking as low as third, as Edwards and Obama both surge. If they lose in Iowa, has either candidate got the staying power to prevail in New Hampshire? Giuliani has never led in the New Hampshire polls and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has been on top for months. With two-thirds of New Hampshire voters watching Boston television, Romney has consistently drawn about a third of the state’s GOP vote in trial heats. After a beating in Iowa, Rudy will probably succumb in New Hampshire, as well. And what of Clinton after Iowa? If the caucuses are essentially a three-way tie among Clinton, Obama and Edwards, Clinton might be able to pull out a victory in New Hampshire where she has led in the polls all along. But with her vote share there dropping, a defeat in Iowa would most likely trigger a loss in New Hampshire as well. In South Carolina, should Obama defeat Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire, African-American voters could suddenly catch Obama-itis and rally to his banner, leaving Clinton with a third defeat. It is unrealistic to expect Giuliani, the most liberal Republican, to recover in the most conservative state in the nation. But beneath the avalanche of bad news for the frontrunners, the developments below the surface are likely to be more encouraging for their campaigns. With America focused so early on the presidential race, Rudy and Hillary have become larger than life. Try as she might, Clinton has been unable to shift the focus to Obama or Edwards or to grill them about their shortcomings. The Clinton story is just too big to allow anyone to notice her challengers out of their peripheral vision. The same holds true for Giuliani, although to a lesser extent. But if Clinton and Giuliani lose the early contests, Americans in both parties will face the prospect of nominating virtual unknowns as their candidates for president. We know only the barest minimum about Romney and Obama, and even less about Huckabee. Edwards is better known, having run for vice president, but he, too, has had little time in the sun. In all likelihood, December will have been the month of scrutiny for Clinton and Rudy. But those who do well in this month’s primaries—whether it’s Romney, Huckabee, Obama or Edwards—will get the bulk of the focus, good and bad. Journalists will consider it their duty to dig up everything they can ﬁnd, and the two best-staffed campaigns— Rudy’s and Hillary’s—will obligingly offer dirt on their opponents to news outlets. It is very unlikely that any of the other four candidates can survive the battering. Democrats will get skittish about nominating an African-American, especially one with such limited experience.They will wonder if he has the gravitas to take on the Republican machine with the presidency at stake. For their part, Republicans will fret that the country is not ready for a Mormon and will wonder if Huckabee has the experience on the high wire to take on Clinton and the Democrats. Florida, on Jan. 29, will play the key role. It will be there that the momentum of the four challengers will collide with the rebounds of the two former frontrunners. Florida’s results will set the table for Super Tuesday, most likely restoring Clinton and Giuliani to primacy in their parties. But it will have been a close call. And then, in a night, it will all be over and we will be focused on the dreary spectacle of a 10-month general election campaign! Dick Morris is an author and political commentator. To get his columns for free by e-mail several times each week, sign up at DickMorris.com. 54 Politics January 2008 http://www.DickMorris.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008

Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008 Contents GOP Retirement Woes Getting Girls to Think Politics Movers & Shakers: Karen Hanretty If I Had It To Do Over: Mike McCurry Eve Fairbanks Column Cover Story: Mike Huckabee Hopping the Pond GOP: The Next Generation 5 “Truths” About Women Voters Reds & Blues: States in the Spotlight High Road/Campaign Doc Bookshelf Dick Morris Column John Zogby Column Techbytes Playbook Coming & Going: Who's Where Campaign Sign-ups Marketplace Quips & Slips

Campaigns and Elections' Politics - January 2008

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