Campaigns & Elections' Politics - February 2008 - (Page 35) Which Party Will Hispanics Call Home? By Molly Knight Raskin Their Vote Is Fast-Growing, Influential … And Up For Grabs. 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. This is a greater challenge for the Republicans, since Hispanics have historic roots in the Democratic Party. Still, strategists say the Democrats don’t have enough of a hold on the Hispanic vote to take it for granted. At a time when the volatile issues of immigration and the economy are top concerns, courting the Hispanic vote has not only become more important, but also much more complex. “In terms of the way Latinos are looking at this election, I don’t think one party is ahead of the other yet,” says Sosa, who is not currently tied to a campaign. “In fact, I think Latinos are looking less and less at the parties and more at the candidates themselves.” For the candidates, this opportunity requires an aggressive plan to court Hispanics, who are now perhaps the single mostcoveted constituency of the 2008 presidential campaign. t’s nearly midnight on Nov. 4, and all evening the vote totals have made the White House race too close to call. Finally, the winner is clear—and, according to strategists, so is the reason for the razor-thin victories in four battleground states: the Hispanic vote. While it might sound far-fetched, strategists say this scenario is possible if the 2008 contest is a close one. “If it comes down to a state with a large Latino population, then the Hispanic vote could be decisive,” says Lionel Sosa, a longtime Hispanic Republican strategist. At 47 million, Hispanics comprise 15 percent of the U.S. population, making them the country’s largest minority bloc. They are also the fastest-growing group, expected to double by 2030 to almost 30 percent of the population. Although Hispanics make up less than 10 percent of the national electorate, their presence at the polls has the potential to grow with them. Between 2000 and 2008, the Hispanic electorate nearly doubled. It could continue on this track over the next decade, with more than half a million Hispanics turning 18—and becoming eligible to vote—every year. Even more important is their location on the electoral map. Of the six states President George W. Bush won by margins of 5 percent or less in 2004, five have a sizeable Hispanic population: Nevada, Florida, Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico. In all of these states, which are expected to be close again this year, the population of eligible Hispanic voters is larger than the margin of Bush’s victory in ’04. The candidates and their strategists know this. They also know that to win the White House, they need approximately I Who Is the Hispanic Voter? Hispanics are not reliably Democratic because certain subgroups identify with Republicans, including Evangelicals, fiscal conservatives and family-values voters. They tend to be prolife, against gay marriage and favor conservative fiscal policy. Hispanics also are split along geographic lines.With roots in more than a dozen different countries, Hispanic voters break down roughly into three distinguishable groups: Cubans, Dominicans and the largest group, Mexicans. Among these, Cubans are the only group Republicans have consistently held because of the GOP’s policy toward Fidel Castro. Then there are generational differences. Most older Hispan- EDEL RODRIGUEZ February 2008 Politics 35
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