Campaigns & Elections' Politics - February 2008 - (Page 36) ics are Democrats, largely motivated by the party’s push for immigration reform. Some in the second generation—one of the most Evangelical—splinter off to the Republicans, identifying with their focus on the family. Young Hispanics, who make up the majority of the population, lean Democratic but boast the highest number of undecided voters. Finally, there are religious divides. Evangelical Latinos are twice as likely as those who are Catholic to identify with the Republican Party. Although these factors make Hispanics difficult to court, they are more than eager to be courted. The evidence is in Hispanic mobilization efforts nationwide. One of the largest is Ya Es Hora, Ve y Vota! (It’s Time, Go Vote!) The campaign is led by Mi Familia Vota, an arm of the Service Employees International Union, the National Association of Latino Elected Officials and the National Council of La Raza. It works with local organizations to help Hispanic residents fill out citizenship applications and help Hispanic citizens register to vote. Ya Es Hora’s efforts, and those of other naturalization campaigns, appear to be paying off. Officials with the U.S. Bureau of Citizens and Immigration Services reported that by August of last year, they had been flooded with almost 1 million new citizenship applications from Latinos, about double the amount they received in 2006. That’s a huge number of potential voters. Which way will the independents among them swing? If history is any guide, it’s impossible to know. Bush’s former chief strategist, Karl Rove, targeted Hispanics in the 2004 presidential campaign, and helped win over a record number of these voters for a Republican candidate—about 40 percent. To do so, the party played up faith and family, with a strong dose of entrepreneurial spirit. And days before the election, Bush used Spanish ads to rally Miami’s Cuban-American population, which helped produce his 537-vote victory in the state. During his two terms, Bush endorsed bilingual education and championed an immigration bill that would provide a path to citizenship for the country’s illegal immigrants. But he is not the only Republican to have success attracting Hispanic voters.Thirty-two percent of the Hispanic vote went to Ronald Reagan in 1984. More recently, in 2002, 60 percent of Hispanics cast their ballots for Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 44 percent for former New York Gov. George E. Pataki and 46 percent for former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens—all Republicans. And in 2006, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger managed to pull in 40 percent of the Hispanic vote—quite an achievement in a year otherwise marked by a huge Republican slide in Hispanic support. Yet because of the Republican-led effort in Congress to defeat comprehensive immigration reform, the party took just 26 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2006 midterm elections, down from 44 percent in 2004. Hispanics’ displeasure with the Republican Party shows no sign of abating. A December poll by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center found that 57 percent of Hispanic voters currently identify with Democrats, compared with only 23 per- cent who align with Republicans—in large part because of the parties’ different stands on immigration. How will the 2008 candidates court the Hispanic vote? For both parties, there’s one answer: aggressively. Winning the Hispanic Vote Although Hispanic outreach has long been a part of presidential campaigns, strategists say 2008 marks one of the most organized efforts in election history. “The days when a candidate was able to show up in September and try to win over Hispanic voters are long gone,” says Arturo Vargas, executive director of NALEO. “It’s no longer a shot-in-the-dark effort, but a long-term, strategic one to reach out and engage these voters.” Top-tier candidates in both parties have hired big-name Hispanic consultants, built Spanish-language web sites, invested in Spanish campaign ads and stumped in densely Hispanic cities. While some laud their efforts, others say they need to do more. “At this point, I’ve not seen a candidate on either side going above and beyond to reach out in new and different ways to Hispanic voters,” says Lindsay Daniels, coordinator of the Latino Empowerment Advocacy Project for La Raza. “I’m hopeful that this will change as we get closer to the general election.” If any Democratic candidate has made significant headway with Hispanics, it’s Sen. Hillary Clinton. The Pew Center poll showed 60 percent of registered Hispanic voters who identify themselves as Democrats have a favorable view of Clinton. Building on her husband’s popularity with Hispanics, Clinton has carried out a targeted campaign for their support, hiring Sergio Bendixen, one of the top Hispanic pollsters, and launching MyGrito.com (MyCry), a Spanish social-networking web site. The Pew poll showed that the other front-running Democrats have made less of an impression on Hispanics. Nearly half said they’ve never heard of Sen. Barack Obama and know little about former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who is betting on his antipoverty message to win a significant slice of the Hispanic vote. Both candidates have to hope their profile among Hispanics is changing now that the primaries are under way. On the Republican side, polls show Rudy Giuliani—who has hinted at supporting a path to legalization—leading among Hispanic Republicans, followed by Sen. John McCain and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Despite his win in Iowa, Mike Huckabee remains relatively obscure to Hispanic voters and has little chance at courting them with his plan to send all 12 million illegal immigrants home. Of the GOP candidates, Romney is the only one with a Spanish version of his campaign web site. It includes a video of his son Craig, a fluent Spanish speaker, calling his Dad “un hombre de familia, de fe, y de integridad” (“a man of family, faith and integrity”). His efforts have done little, however, to raise his profile among Hispanic voters, mainly because of his 36 Politics February 2008 http://MyGrito.com
For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.