Campaigns & Elections' Politics - February 2008 - (Page 38) issue,” says Adam Segal, director of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University. “Even if it’s not a voter’s top issue, they will look first at how a candidate stands on it when they are deciding who to support. That’s how huge it is.” How do the candidates stand? All three Democratic frontrunners—Clinton, Obama and Edwards—advocate a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. Still, they’ve all been cautious when it comes to embracing comprehensive immigration reform, mostly out of the fear that they would squander their more moderate support. On the Republican side, McCain is the only candidate who favors a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a position that has cost him a chunk of his conservative base but could garner him Hispanic support if he becomes the Republican nominee. Giuliani and Romney have publicly sparred over who is the toughest on immigration, and that stance could cost them both the Hispanic vote, according to some experts. “Immigration is the front-and-center reason for declining Republican appeal among the Latino electorate,” says Louis DeSipio, associate professor of Latino studies and political science at the University of California Irvine. To complicate the issue, there are those Hispanics—a majority of them native-born—who favor tougher enforcement measures. For all the candidates, this means walking a fine line between attracting, or totally alienating, Hispanic voters. Frank Guerra, a San Antonio media consultant who worked on Hispanic outreach for Bush’s campaigns, says Republicans have to exercise caution on the issue. “Undecided Hispanics will be very affected by the tenor of the discourse of the immigration debate,” says Guerra. “Even Hispanics who agree with Republican positions from a policy standpoint might be turned off because of the tenor of the conversation. That’s a risk for Republican candidates.” Multi-Issue Voters Despite the noise over immigration, this is far from the only concern of Hispanics. In fact, polls have shown there are several issues that Hispanic voters believe candidates need to talk about even more than immigration: Education—National polls show almost unanimous Hispanic support for improving public education and for this issue to be a priority for the next president. Concerns include the high dropout rate among Hispanic students and the poor quality of public schools. Healthcare—Hispanics are almost equally concerned with access to healthcare. Out of all minorities, Hispanics are the most likely to be without health insurance. That’s mainly because they are more likely to be selfemployed, take jobs without health benefits or change jobs. The Economy—Hispanics are fast catching up with the nation’s middle class, particularly in the business arena. There are nearly 2 million Hispanic-owned Clout Across the Country Here are the top ten states where the Hispanic vote has plenty of impact 1 New Mexico 5 Florida 9 New Jersey 32.5% of Hispanics among all registered voters 259,000 Number of registered Hispanic voters 56.1% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 5 Total electoral votes 2 Texas 12.0% Hispanics of all registered voters 857,000 registered Hispanic voters 63.4% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 27 electoral votes 6 Colorado 5.4% Hispanics of all registered voters 218,000 registered Hispanic voters 61.4% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 15 electoral votes 10 Illinois 21.7% Hispanics of all registered voters 2,035,000 registered Hispanic voters 60.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 34 electoral votes 3 Arizona 10.7% Hispanics of all registered voters 213,000 registered Hispanic voters 57.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 9 electoral votes 7 New York 4.6% Hispanics of all registered voters 267,000 registered Hispanic voters 65.5% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 21 electoral votes 16.4% Hispanics of all registered voters 331,000 registered Hispanic voters 49.3% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 10 electoral votes 4 California 7.3% Hispanics of all registered voters 606,000 registered Hispanic voters 56.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 31 electoral votes 8 Nevada 14.6% Hispanics of all registered voters 2,032,000 registered Hispanic voters 55.0% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 55 electoral votes 7.1% Hispanics of all registered voters 59,000 registered Hispanic voters 47.2% of eligible Hispanic voters registered 5 electoral votes —Lauren Zingarelli (Source: Univision, based on the 2004 general election) 38 Politics February 2008
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