i3 - January/February 2017 - 105

By Steve Koenig

Business

M A R K E T B E AT

The Future of Mobility:
Total Opportunity
The Mercedes-Benz
F015 Concept Car

Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE),
who defines five levels from partial to full
automation. Level 1 ADAS features are
considered partial automation because
they have control over velocity and/
or directional movement. Active Lane
Keeping and Adaptive Cruise control are
examples of Level 1 systems.
Level 2 systems build on Level 1
through additional sensors and software
to properly stay within the lane or
properly spaced within traffic. Level 2
(partial autonomy) is offered by a few
OEMs today, such as Tesla's Autopilot.
Industry is building toward deploying
Level 3 systems, where the vehicle will
maintain full control for a limited time
under certain conditions (i.e., overtake
slower vehicles, handle interchanges, etc.)
by the early part of the next decade.

The Road to a Self-Driving Future

FROM TOP: JIM WEST/ALAMY; AF ARCHIVE/ALAMY

n the 1990 sci-fi action film Total Recall (set in the year
2084), Arnold Schwarzenegger's character, a construction
worker named Douglas Quaid, takes a ride in a self-driving
taxi called Johnny Cab. That vision may be much closer
based on the innovations and advances in driver-assist and selfdriving technologies on display at CES 2017. What's more,

range of personal, societal and monetary
Quaid's fictitious ride is becoming reality
benefits that self-driving vehicles will
in Pittsburgh, where Uber has teameddeliver. In addition, 70 percent of drivers
up with Volvo on a $300 million project
indicate they are interested in test-riding
to test self-driving vehicles in the city.
a self-driving vehicle and more interestBut what do consumers think about
ingly, some 60 percent are interested
self-driving vehicles and where are we
in replacing their current vehicle with
on the road to the future of mobility?
a self-driving car at some future point.
In September 2016, CTA published SelfThese results suggest consumers are
Driving Vehicles: Consumer Sentiments,
eager to not only learn more about selfa consumer research study that surveyed
driving systems; many
2,001 U.S. adults (18+
are willing to embrace a
years old) who drove a car
60 percent
future with driverless cars.
or truck in the past month
would replace
Most of the major vehicle
to gauge their favorability
their current
OEMs are readying or have
concerning the benefits of
self-driving vehicles.
vehicle with a deployed Advanced Driver
Assistance Systems (ADAS)
The study found
self-driving
are considered Level
three-quarters of drivers
car someday. which
1 within the context of autoare favorable or very
mation as defined by the
favorable toward a wide
C TA . t e c h / i 3

Cars are rapidly becoming a networked
system of systems - where eventually
software will predominantly define the
vehicle. Already, the collective value of
the digital electronic components in cars
is pushing 50 percent according to some
studies, up from about 25 percent just ten
years ago. This dynamic is driven by infotainment and ADAS features, but will be
accelerated by self-driving features (SAE
Levels 4 and 5) in the years ahead. n

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY
Business opportunities exist at every
turn between Detroit and Silicon
Valley: sensors of all kinds, domain
controllers and processors, machine
learning and artificial intelligence,
robotics, connectivity and networks,
cyber security and mapping. As a result, CTA expects the next decade will
be strong for the major automakers,
their suppliers and other stakeholders
in the industry as consumer demand
for ADAS and self-driving features
grows rapidly. From CES 2017 it's clear
the innovations driving the future of
mobility add up to a 'total opportunity'
that's no science fiction.

JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2017

105

http://cta.tech/i3

i3 - January/February 2017

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