Chief Learning Officer - April 2008 - (Page 60) BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE Fallacies of Reason BY PATTI PHILLIPS, PH.D. Too often, we base our expectations on highly subjective sources of information. In determining the likelihood of success for a particular project or program, we should adopt a scientific approach to assessing and analyzing data. D uring the presidential election of 1936, a massive effort by the Literary Digest was undertaken to forecast the outcome of the race between incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt and Kansas Governor Alfred M. Landon. The Digest distributed more than 10 million ballots, receiving a response of about 2.4 million. The Digest reported its prediction: The Republican candidate, Landon, would receive 370 electoral votes; the Democratic candidate, Roosevelt, would receive 161. Based on the amount of data collected, the prediction was reasonable. As shown in Figure 1, however, the results of the forecast were incorrect. Roosevelt won the election by an overwhelming margin, receiving 523 electoral votes to Landon’s 8. Why was the forecast so inaccurate? All too often, we base our conclusions on: • What we think we see. • What we want to see. • What someone else wants us to see. In doing so, we draw false conclusions that often can result in inaccurate and sometimes costly consequences. What We Think We See The intent of the Literary Digest’s research was to predict the view of the entire voting population in the 1936 presidential campaign. The number of ballots administered and the corresponding number of responses would lead one to expect some level of accuracy in the prediction. Unfortunately, the researchers missed the mark, and thus misled readers. (See Figure 1.) The fallacy in its reporting was not the prediction itself; rather, it was in the way the Digest came to its conclusion. The 10 million ballots were distributed to addresses collected from the Digest’s subscription lists as well as from telephone directories and automobile registration lists, which seems like a reasonable approach to conducting research. The researchers thought they had a good representation of the U.S. interest and thought their prediction would be accurate. But the year was 1936: 60 Chief Learning Officer • April 2008 • www.clomedia.com Magazine subscriptions, telephone directories and automobiles were not evenly distributed throughout the country. The consequence was false reasoning (sample selection) based on factual premises (survey results) that resulted in false conclusions (inaccurate prediction). We all view information, processes and outcomes differently. Our perception sets an expectation. But perception is relative. Expectation based on perception often disappoints us. We think a person has a good quality in one dimension, therefore, we expect he or she will have good qualities in other dimensions. In essence, we attribute characteristics to a person that are consistent with what we already believe about the person. Because we expect someone to be honest or to provide good information, we perceive them to do so in every case. This “halo effect” impacts decisions we make and can lead to false conclusions. Expectation often is influenced by the desire to be believed. The more we perceive our beliefs as being supported, the more we believe that what we see supports our belief. In January 2008, in the town of Stephenville, Texas, community members saw something in the sky. People who had already experienced a UFO “sighting” now had additional data supporting their belief. When a retired military pilot argued against the UFO sighting on “Larry King Live” by suggesting it was a government project, he provided the nonbelievers additional basis for their disbelief. By letting expectation and desire drive our perspective, we miss the opportunity to better understand an issue that could help us achieve more accurate conclusions. What We Want to See Seeking to confirm is inherent in our nature. We look for information that confirms our beliefs rather than look for information that disconfirms our beliefs. When was the last time someone asked your opinion only to be disappointed because your opinion differed from what they wanted to hear? http://www.clomedia.com
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