Managed Care - February 2009 - (Page 32) Are Health Plans Responding To Primary Care Shortage? Many experts predict that there will be a dearth of primary care doctors, but others are not so worried By Tom Reinke tors average 169.4 per 100,000 population and regions with highest number of doctors have an average of 271.8 per 100,000. “The total number of doctors in all regions was adequate, so these variations demonstrate that the supply of doctors is quite elastic,” says Goodman. “While there are some n response to warnings of a significant physician shortage, allopathic medical schools are expanding enrollments by more than 20 percent, and osteopathic schools are growing even faster. However, a cap on graduate medical education funding and the trend toMore physicians will be needed per capita ward increasing specialization indicate The federal Health Resources and Services Administration that purchasers of health care services projects that the number of primary care and specialist physimight not get more of the doctors they cians per 100,000 people will increase through 2020. hope will improve the health care delivery system. Physician requirements per 100,000 population Researchers and some industry leaders say that health plans should step up to 350 help shape the physician workforce. I Doctor shortage A 2005 study by the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) estimated there will be a shortage of at least 85,000 physicians in 2020. A 2006 study by the Health Resources and Services Administration predicted a shortage of at least 55,000 doctors. The HRSA predicts that the demand for practicing doctors will increase from 713,800 in 2000 to 921,500 in 2020 — 22 percent. The demand for primary care doctors will increase 20 percent to 337,400, while specialist demand will increase 23 percent to 584,100. Researchers at Dartmouth College say the predictions of a shortage may not be accurate. “There is dramatic variation in the per capita supply of physicians across regions in the United States. Greater supply is not associated with higher quality of care, access, or satisfaction,” says David Goodman, MD. His research shows that regions with lowest concentration of doc- 300 Totals: 268 15 158 250 271 15 161 276 15 164 283 16 169 291 16 174 No patient care 200 Specialists 150 100 95 95 96 98 100 50 Primary care 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Physician supply and demand: Projections to 2020, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration, Bureau of Health Professions, October 2006 32 MANAGED CARE / FEBRUARY 2009
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