Aftermarket Insider Issue 74 - (Page 26)

iNDUSTRY NEwS polk Five Trends in Five Minutes leaders who attended the 2011 AAIA Town Hall at AAPEX in Las Vegas, Nev. experienced a power-packed breakfast, with presentations on the latest in financial, consumer and industry trends and insight. Back by popular demand from 2010 was the “Five Trends in Five Minutes” presentation provided by Polk, Town Hall’s primary sponsor. “It is events like Town Hall that allow us to not only show Polk’s support of this great industry, but also provides us the opportunity to share the insights into trends shaping the aftermarket industry, today and tomorrow,” said Mark Seng, vice president, aftermarket and commercial vehicle and Polk’s global aftermarket practice leader. The following overview of the presentation is updated with the most current information available. The nearly 1,200 aftermarket ThE FIvE TREnDs: #1 – Light vehicle sales recovering U.S. new light vehicle sales in 2012 will likely experience single-digit growth, primarily due to a relatively strong growth in 2011 and the effects of the slowly growing economy that will continue to suppress new vehicle demand through most of the year. Sales are expected to grow at a moderate pace, with a 7.3 percent increase compared to 2011, to 13.7 million vehicles. We are not likely to achieve pre-recession levels of 16 million units until 2015. #2 – More light vehicles in the aftermarket sweet spot than for oEMs The average age of light vehicles in operation in the U.S. reached a record high in 2011 of 10.8 years of age – 11.1 years for passenger cars and 10.4 for light trucks. The steep decline and relatively slow increase in new vehicle sales has resulted in this aging of the vehicle fleet. This aging fleet has developed into a substantial increase in vehicles that are typically repaired in the aftermarket repair channel. Taking a closer look at the impact made by the aging vehicle population one sees a very aftermarket-friendly trend. Vehicles new-to-three years of age have seen a 15 million drop over the past six years. Vehicles 11 years and older have increased by 13 million units over the same time period. #3 – The changing vehicle mix. “Even with a rebound in new vehicle sales, there are fewer cars and light trucks on the road likely to be repaired in the OEM channel,” said Seng. “The aftermarket stands to gain more than $3B in DIFM service business over the next three to four years, based on our data and information from IMR.” “Because of the drop in new vehicle sales, the vehicle population continues to age fairly rapidly, up 10 percent over the last five years,” said Seng. “This is driven not only by the decline in new vehicle sales but by two interesting trends regarding vehicle ownership.” 26 | AFTERMARKET INSIDER | VOLUME 74 http://www.polk.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Aftermarket Insider Issue 74

Aftermarket Insider Issue 74
President’s Message
A Celebration Campaign
Association News
Inside Technology
Member Profile
Toolbox: Qr Codes
International Focus
AAIA Market Intelligence: Don’t Do Business Without It!
Association News
Segment Spotlight
Government Affairs
Industry News

Aftermarket Insider Issue 74

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