EBACE Show News - May 20, 2008 - (Page 83) EBACE 2008 Bombardier Sees Big-Jet Sales Surge Bombardier Aerospace May 7 issued its latest 10-year forecast for the business jet market, covering the years 2008-2017. In a time of spiraling fuel costs, long delivery tail-backs, a shortage of completion assets and an increasing profusion of competing aircraft in an ever-dividing marketplace, Bombardier predicts a level of growth significantly higher than its forecast of just 12 months ago. The total value of deliveries over the coming 10 years will be $300 billion, says Bombardier. Bombardier notes that 2007 was pete), so the actual future worldwide fleet will be an order of magnitude larger than the forecast shows. Bombardier’s calculations specifically exclude aircraft such as the Eclipse 500, Cessna Mustang, CJ1+ and CJ2+, Embraer Phenom 100 and Hawker Beechcraft Premier 1. Says Steve Ridolfi, president, Bombardier Business Aircraft, “Is the Mustang a VLJ? I don’t know. It’s on the margins so we don’t include it.” On this basis Bombardier calculates that the worldwide business aircraft fleet will double in size from 12,800 aircraft in 2007 to 24,800 Business jets crowd the static line at EBACE 2008. The business of business jets now far overshadows the once-dominant market for jet fighters. While Bombardier estimates that business jet deliveries over the next ten years will total $300 billion, Forecast International pegs the world market for jet fighters over the same timeframe will be only half that, at $164.5 billion. And the FI tally includes the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter— the future of which is far from assured. Far Fewer Medium/Large Jets, Thinks Rolls-Royce, But More Overall Rolls-Royce’s latest forecast does not fully synch with Bombardier’s, but it covers a wider range of market sectors and so paints a picture of even greater overall demand. While Bombardier’s 10-year estimate of new jet orders numbers 13,500 medium and large jets, Rolls-Royce predicts only 8,000 of those but a total of 18,500 in all classes over the same period. Rolls-Royce’s complete forecast actually covers 20 years rather than 10. Also, it includes the very light jet category that Bombardier ignores. The 10,500 or so “extra” orders for lighter jets that fall into this bracket— according to Rolls-Royce—is a slightly lower estimate for that sector than others have calculated. Growth will continue in business jet deliveries through the remainder of the decade, according to the forecast, and Rolls-Royce foresees an engine market worth $110 billion over the next 20 years, with medium and large business jets dominating in terms of aircraft and engine value. 79,000 engines (at $110 billion) will be needed over the next 20 years to power 39,000 new business jet aircraft, from very light jets to business jetliners, Rolls-Royce’s forecast predicts. In common with the rest of the industry, the company notes that demand is augmented by an increase in deliveries to non-U.S. customers coupled with the introduction of new models, both of which add further stimulus to the market. Of the 39,000 new aircraft, 40% are expected to be in the medium or large jet category (75% by value). The forecast predicts that nearly 16,000 medium and large business jets will be delivered between 2008 and 2027. Sales in 2007 totaled GBP7.4 billion ($14 billion), of which 55% related to aftermarket service revenues. The order book in December 2007 was GBP45.9 billion ($91 billion), which together with demand for services —Robert Hewson provides visibility as to future levels of activity. Heavy business jets like this line-up of Gulfstreams contribute to an economic impact that now far exceeds that of the fighter jet segment. a record year for revenue, orders and deliveries. The continuing pace of order intakes and the substantial current backlog will keep deliveries rising, it says. Bombardier’s 2007-2016 forecast predicted business jet deliveries of 995 units per year, at an annual value of $23 billion. Those figures have leapt to 1,320 units per year, worth some $30 billion, in the new forecast. Total orders from 2008-2017 will number 13,500 medium and large jets. What is more, Bombardier overlooks the light/very light jet category (in which it does not com- aircraft in 2017. The fleet will be split between customers in the U.S. (54%, down from today’s 69%), Europe (25%, up from today’s 13%) and the rest of the world (21%, up from today’s 17%). By way of comparison, the worldwide fleet in 1997 was 8,600 jets, according to Bombardier, with 70% of those based in the United States. Curiously, the real-world figures that Bombardier itself quotes for the 2007 market do not chime with its own forecast. Bombardier lists only 863 actual aircraft deliveries for 2007, at a value of just $18.4 billion. —Robert Hewson www.aviationweek.com/shownews May 20, 2008 83 http://www.aviationweek.com/shownews
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