Farnborough Show News - July 14, 2008 - (Page 34)

FA R N B O R O U G H 2 0 0 8 Boeing Sees More Replacement Aircraft Boeing has scaled back its forecast for world aircraft demand in view of surging fuel costs and other economic pressures, but still sees a market for 29,400 new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years, worth an aggregate $3.2 trillion. Single-aisle jets will dominate by unit count, and twin-aisle jets will be the most important economically. About 43% of the new jets will be replacements for existing craft. Boeing pegged replacements at just 36% last year. The change is due to “the loss of economic viability of older aircraft in light of higher fuel costs.” Indeed, the entire latest forecast, Boeing says, “takes into account the industry’s near-term challenges, including a slowing worldwide economy, surging fuel prices, slowing traffic growth in some markets, and concerted action by airlines to balance costs and revenues.” “We’re facing a very dynamic situation today in the commercial aviation industry,” says Boeing Commercial Airplanes marketing vp Randy Tinseth. “This year’s fore- “We’re seeing an increasing share of airplane deliveries to the Asia-Pacific region, as well as to the Middle East, Latin America and the Commonwealth of Independent States. The result is a much more geographically balanced and more stable long-term market, which is less vulnerable to swings in regional economies or other variations in demand.” —Boeing Commercial Airplanes marketing vp Randy Tinseth cast is rooted in today’s realities, but also recognizes the nature of a longterm outlook.” Boeing is forecasting a slightly smaller fleet size at the end of the 20-year period (35,800) than predicted in the previous outlook (36,400). Compared with today’s world fleet of 19,000 units, this represents an annual increase of 3.2% per year—the same as the estimated economic growth rate. As a result of strong orders over the last three years, Boeing says, “more than 30% of the forecast is already in backlog.” “What we’ve learned is that our industry, which is based on the need to transport passengers and freight via our global aviation system, is extremely resilient,” Tinseth said. Boeing sees “continued strong fundamentals underlying the need for new airplanes—including economic growth, world trade, aviation market liberalization, and new aircraft capabilities.” The new airplanes will accommodate a forecasted 5% annual increase in global air travel and a 5.8% annual increase in air cargo traffic. Over the next 20 years, Boeing says, the world’s passenger and cargo airlines will take delivery of: • 2,510 regional jets worth $80 billion—described as a “declining segment” as airlines move to full-size, single-aisle jets due to capacity, economic, environmental constraints; • 19,160 single-aisle jets worth $1,360 billion; • 6,750 twin-aisle jets worth $1,470 billion; and • 980 jumbo and superjumbo jets worth $290 billion, described as a “small but significant market.” The projected strength in singleaisle airplanes is attributed to “strong domestic and intra-regional air travel growth in emerging AsiaPacific markets, along with continued growth of low-cost carriers worldwide.” “We’re seeing an increasing share of airplane deliveries to the AsiaPacific region, as well as to the Middle East, Latin America and the Commonwealth of Independent States,” Tinseth said. “The result is a much more geographically balanced and more stable long-term market, which is less vulnerable to swings in regional economies or other variations in demand.” Raytheon Missiles for Both Tactics and Strategy Raytheon’s involvement in strategic missile defense complements its work with the Patriot system in tactical missile defense. Its most recent highlight in the strategic area was use of the Raytheon Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) launched from a U.S. Navy Aegis ship to shoot down a malfunctioning U.S. satellite in February, according to Skip Garrett, a company vice president. The action, he says, showed “not only Raytheon’s involvement, but the extent to which we have developed systems to enable the United States to defend itself” against an attack from space. “We had tested our ballistic missile defense system capability with Aegis on a number of occasions, and this was another opportunity, not only to take out [a satellite] that could potentially have caused some great damage” if 1,000 lbs of onboard hydrazine fuel had survived an uncontrolled re-entry and hit a populated area, “but a further chance to demonstrate the capabilities that the U.S. military has against this type of a threat,” Garrett says. 34 He says it’s “a good example of what I would call the missile defense kill chain, where you have a target that’s identified, you have an asset—in this case the Aegis ship—that was in position, and it had a weapon system,” the SM-3, “that was able to engage and destroy the incoming target.” The Navy recently conducted the first test of the SM-6 Extended Range missile, under development by Raytheon for anti-air missions. In the test, at White Sands Missile Range, N.M., the missile was guided to its target, a BQM-74 aerial drone, by a newly developed seeker. Garrett says Raytheon is also “very much involved in the National Missile Defense program,” intended to protect the U.S. against ballistic missile attack. An SM-3 And, says Garrett, the company is “watching very shot down closely” the NATO initiative to put a radar site in the a satellite in February. Czech Republic and a missile interceptor site in Poland. The U.S. must now get approvals of the governments to proceed. “That’s the process that’s going on now,” Garrett says, and Raytheon is “very much involved in the radar piece of that. That’s our primary interest.” July 14, 2008 www.aviationweek.com/shownews http://www.aviationweek.com/shownews

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Farnborough Show News - July 14, 2008

Farnborough Show News - July 14, 2008 Contents Thirty More Years CFM Reveals New Engine Boeing Reduces Forecast UAVs’ Quiet Revolution Finmeccanica: U.S. Success A Plethora of AESAs BAE North America Plus L-3 Becomes a Prime Better Late Than Never A Peek Behind the Curtain China’s J-10 Revealed Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner Breaking LM’s Hegemony

Farnborough Show News - July 14, 2008

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