B/CA Show News - NBAA 2007 Day 1 - (Page 30) d1p30 final 9/23/07 1:53 PM Page 1 N B A A 2 0 07 Honeywell: Bizjets to Top 1,000 Units This Year Deliveries of business jets will exceed 1,000 this year for the first time in history, according to Honeywell Aerospace. And Honeywell sees the momentum building, with its latest forecast predicting deliveries of more than 14,000 business jets with a combined value of $233 billion over the next 10 years. “This is a record year for the industry,” said Rob Wilson, president for business & general aviation at Honeywell Aerospace. “Order intake remains very strong, with little discernable affect from recent stock market fluctuations. “With backlogs exceeding two and one half years worth of deliveries, 2008 will likely be another banner year for the industry,” Wilson said. Honeywell is forecasting more than 1,300 deliveries in 2008. Beyond then the outlook remains strong, with annual deliveries expected to run in the 1,200 to 1,400 range through 2017. The U.S. will perhaps be the one soft spot: respondents to the survey overall said they expect to replace or expand the equivalent of one third of their fleets over the next five years, but in the U.S. that figure was just 20%. The U.S. now accounts for only 50% of the global business jet market, compared with 60% to 70% just a few years ago. Asia is expected to account for 15% of business jet demand over the next five years, Europe 22%, and the Middle East/Africa 4%. Here’s how the survey views the different categories of business jets: Long-Range and Ultra Long-Range: Delivmore than 2,600 aircraft. Growth in these segments is being fueled by the introduction of new models, both near-term and in the later years of the forecast period. Among the newer aircraft in these segments are the Citation Sovereign, Gulfstream G150, Hawker 900XP, Hawker 850XP and Hawker 4000. Established platforms include the Bombardier Challenger 300, Citation X, Gulfstream G200, Falcon 50EX, and Learjet 60. Light and Light-Medium: Honeywell anticipates deliveries of more than 3,850 jets in these segments between 2007 and 2017, an increase of more than 18% from last year’s forecast. Aircraft in these segments include the Hawker 400XP, Hawker 750, Citation Bravo, Citation Encore+, CJ3 (525B), Citation XLS, Grob SPn, Embraer Phenom 300, Lear 40 and Lear 45/45XR. Very Light Jets: Deliveries are poised to accelerate rapidly off a base of around 175 units in 2007, averaging just under 320 aircraft per year for the latter portion of the forecast period. The rapid increase reflects the introduction of such new VLJs as the Embraer Phenom 100 and Cessna Citation Mustang. Total deliveries of very light jets for the 2007 to 2017 period are expected to exceed 3,300. Aircraft in this segment also include the Cessna CJ1+ and CJ2+, Beechcraft Premier I, Sino-Swearingen SJ30-2 and HondaJet. Personal Jets: Although not included in the forecast, Honeywell says the demand for VLJs such as the Eclipse 500, Adam 700, Diamond Jet, Cirrus, and Piper Jet will be for 6,000 to 7,000 aircraft over the next 10 years. The projections now factor in demand from fractional ownership companies, branded charter and emerging air taxi operations that have ordered ultra-light jets as the core of their fleets. Business Liners: These, too, are not included in the forecast, but Honeywell believes deliveries will come to some 250 through 2017 and should average more than 20 aircraft per year in the forecast period. Aircraft in this segment include the Boeing BBJ series, the Airbus Elite A318 and Airbus Corporate Jetliner as well as the Lineage 1000 from Embraer, plus corporate versions of twin aisle aircraft. This segment comprises an additional $15 billion worth of business aircraft sales. —John Morris Honeywell Polls Sample of 1,500-Plus Honeywell’s annual survey, now in its 21st year, is based on the buying intentions expressed by 1,500 corporate flight departments around the world that operate more than 15% of the world’s turbine-powered fixedwing aircraft. It also incorporates information from aircraft manufacturers, industry sources, and Honeywell’s own analysis of the impact of economic indicators on industry trends. The survey does not include personal jets and business liners. eries will top 2,000 through 2017. Deliveries might range as high as 225 aircraft per year and should average 170 to 190 per year over much of the period. Aircraft in this category include the Bombardier Global Express and Global 5000, Challenger 850, Gulfstream G450, G500 and G550, Falcon 900EX, Falcon 900DX and the new Falcon 7X. Large: Honeywell’s forecast calls for delivery of more than 1,300 large business jets through 2017. Near term deliveries will run around 120 aircraft in 2007 and 2008, then decline slightly to a stable level of around 100 to 110 aircraft per year until trending up again in 2013 and beyond. Aircraft in this category include the Falcon 2000, Falcon 2000DX and EX, Challenger 604/605, Gulfstream 350, the future super-midsize Falcon, and Embraer’s Legacy 600. Medium and Medium-Large: Combined, new aircraft deliveries in these segments are forecast to approach 280 in 2007 and average around 280 to 300 units annually for several years. Deliveries for the forecast period should total 30 September 25, 2007 www.aviationweek.com/shownews http://www.aviationweek.com/shownews
For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.