Morningstar Magazine - February/March 2014 - (Page 60)
Morningstar Conversation
The Economic Implications
of an Older World
By Paul D. Kaplan
People are living longer, but having fewer children. Michael Falk
and Laurence Siegel debate the ramifications for global growth.
In late 2012, the CFA Institute's flagship
publication, the Financial Analysts Journal,
published a thought-provoking essay
by the research director of the institute's
research foundation, Laurence B. Siegel, titled
"Fewer, Richer, Greener: The End of the
Population Explosion and the Future for
Investors" (November/December 2012). Siegel
predicted that the world's population would
level off and might even begin to decline within
60 Morningstar February/March 2014
two generations (hence, "fewer"), that
humanity as a whole would be wealthier
("richer"), and that these improvements in the
human condition would provide the means
to reverse the damage that industrialization
has had on the physical environment and even
improve it ("greener").
Siegel's optimistic predictions, however,
are not without risks and challenges that must
be faced if they are to pan out. While the
size of the human population may be
leveling off, its age composition is changing
dramatically. We are becoming older,
but not necessarily healthier. Michael Falk, CFA,
a partner with the Focus Consulting
Group and the chief investment strategist
at Mauka Capital, has been studying
global demographic trends and the implications
for investors for many years, especially
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Morningstar Magazine - February/March 2014
Morningstar Magazine - February/March 2014
Contents
Contributors
Letter From the Editor
Preparing for the Next 50 Years
Morningstar Managers of the Year
Fixing the Trust Deficit
Rethinking the Path to Retirement
Trends
Same Old, Same Old
Global Briefs
The Economic Implications of an Older World
Banking on Performance
Is the Affordable Care Act Healing Health Care’s Woes?70
Baxter Has a Positive Prognosis
Leading Fidelity’s Charge for RIAs
Our Favorite Mutual Funds
50 Most-Popular Equity ETFs
Undervalued Stocks With Wide Moats
Moving the Goal Post
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