Morningstar Magazine - October/November 2016 - 17
Dispatches
Trump and Clinton
The U.S. primary system
produces bad
presidential candidates.
THE OLD SQUIRREL
Ralph Wanger
Donald Trump is a singular figure in American
political history. With no political experience,
and with little interest in building a team of skilled
advisors, he was able to win the nomination
for the Republican Party, a task that few people in
the country thought was remotely possible a year
ago. Trump, however, has dissipated the
momentum that brought him the nomination, and
his actions have made it clear to me that he has no
qualifications to be president.
Trump claims to be a successful businessman and
a great deal-maker. We are in the financialservices industry, and we can see that his claims
are false. There was a brilliant story about
his career in the Atlantic City casino business
in The New York Times.1 Usually, I am very skeptical
of New York Times stories on political events,
but in 1990, I was a financial analyst following the
gaming industry, and the The Times' story
was well researched and in line with my recollections of the events.
Trump built three casinos in Atlantic City. Just
going into the casino business is a cynical
thing to do, because the casino industry lives
by bankrupting its best customers. Any
1
2
3
4
5
6
casino owner knows that every year some of his
players will become gambling addicts, and
a gambling addict will ruin himself and his family.
Every casino has a customer loyalty program to
give perks to the best customers. As the gambling
addict spends more and more on his habit, he is
treated like a prince-until all his money is gone.
own debts. The Taj was continually in bankruptcy
court.3 Trump skated away, boasting of the
money he made in Atlantic City. In other words, as
a businessman, Trump was incompetent and
untrustworthy. The Wall Street Journal summarized
all this as "Trump is morally unfit for any office,
high or low."4
Trump had plenty of cynicism, but not enough
capital. He did not put enough equity into
his projects, so he had to sell junk bonds at 12%
to 14% to pay for construction costs. The
fixed cost of the debt was too high to make the
casinos profitable. This was pointed out at
the time by Marvin Roffman, an analyst at Janney
Montgomery Scott. He published a report
dissecting the balance sheet on the Taj Mahal
casino, showing that interest payments
required $1.3 million of income per day and that
no Atlantic City casino had ever been able
to win that much. Trump, reading this, might have
decided that Roffman was correct and sold
$2 billion in common stock to create a survivable
balance sheet. Instead, he called up Janney
and demanded that Roffman be fired. Janney
Montgomery Scott, to their eternal shame, caved
in and fired him.2
Trump was not the only real estate mogul to build
a giant portfolio on borrowed money. The banks
loved to finance these guys. But in 1986, the
U.S. tax code was changed, ending the tax shelters
on real estate. Without these tax shelters, the
value of commercial real estate plunged,
so 1988-92 was a disastrous period for real estate
operators. As building prices came down, the
same banks that loved their borrowers on the way
up now panicked and called all their real estate
loans, good and bad. Many real estate firms went
bankrupt, and many desperate operators had to do
"whatever it takes" to survive. In other words,
Trump was in trouble, but so was everybody else.
Trump might have had a plan to open his casinos
on leveraged equity and, as the Atlantic City
casino business continued to grow, sell equity to
the public at a high price.
If Trump had a strategic plan to refinance the
Taj, it never happened, because in 1990, Atlantic
City's gaming market stopped growing and
made the sale of new equity impossible. Trump,
the genius, had broken his own rule by personally
guaranteeing some of the Taj debt, so when
his three casinos went broke, he nearly suffered
the same fate. He solved the problem by
taking money out of the three casinos to pay his
How About Hillary?
It's big news when The Wall Street Journal
doesn't support the Republican candidate, and
it's big news when The Atlantic doesn't like
the Democratic candidate. The title says it all:
"Why Can't Hillary Clinton Stop Lying?"5 The article
mentions the habitual lying by Clinton that
has been a feature of her entire career and now
especially so in the matter of her mishandling
classified information as U.S. Secretary of State.
The article concedes her lies, but then concludes
that just lying isn't as bad as what Trump is up to.
However, this approach ignores the question
of what Clinton was lying about. She was denying
the commission of serious accusations. Her
daily email routine potentially violated the
Espionage Act and related federal statutes. Her
actions continued for years.6 When caught, Clinton
Russ Buettner and Charles V. Bagli, "How Donald Trump Bankrupted His Atlantic City Casinos, but Still Earned Millions," The New York Times, June 11, 2016.
Roffman sued Janney and got a substantial cash settlement. I ordered my firm to stop doing business with Janney. Roffman went on to have a successful career as a financial advisor.
Its fifth reorganization occurred in 2014. The new owners just announced in August that the Taj Mahal would be closed for good in September.
Bret Stephens, "To the Go-Along Republicans" The Wall Street Journal, Aug. 1, 2016.
Ron Fournier, "Why Can't Hillary Clinton Stop Lying?", The Atlantic, Aug. 1, 2016.
Clinton has been and is subject to the laws governing classified information. As first lady, senator, and Secretary of State, she was under these laws. To be guilty of mishandling classified
documents, the government does not have to prove any damage to the United States or that the act was done intentionally. Just leaving a classified document on your desk overnight is an
infraction. Such infractions have been punished. The Gen. David Petraeus matter is a good example.
global.morningstar.com/Morningstarmagazine
17
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