Centerlines - March 2009 - (Page 15) COVER STORY The November, 2008 Boeing World Air Cargo Report forecasts recovery and a healthy future at approximately historical levels through 2027 for Asia-North American routes,” Wilson said. Alternative Cargo Airports By and large, alternative gateway strategies are going to be a difficult sell since much of the premise is based on congestion and over-capacity at traditional gateway airports. “When you start looking at JFK, LAX and O’Hare, you are seeing single-digit growth, if not losses,” said Webber Air Cargo President Michael Webber. “So the levers that would allow for arguments about congestion and the lack of capacity aren’t necessarily there.” PHOTO BY SAM A. MCCRIMMON Frontier Airlines planes load up with cargo at the Denver International Airport. handles in the range of 75 percent of the Transpacific air cargo traffic, making the Alaska hub a good benchmark of the general picture between the two continents. “We were seeing slower growth when the recession began in the latter part of the summer and the financial crisis began,” Wilson said. “Then in early fall, the Anchorage statistics show a drop of up to 15 to 20 percent for three months in a row over the same period in 2007.” Bearing in mind that 2007 was the strongest year-to-date in a market that has enjoyed healthy average growth of at least 6 percent for the past 15 years, Wilson said the past six months mark the first time ANC is weathering a decline of this scale. In previous economic downturns — 1998 for example — there was a recession in Asia that caused a one-year leveling off of the growth of air cargo in Anchorage. After that, cargo actually resumed to the previous growth curve. Three years later, the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks caused an exaggeration of a softening that started in early 2000 — a slowing down of the economy. That rebounded by 2002 for international air cargo. “In 1998, the amount of air cargo through the airport did not decline, PHOTO BY SAM A. MCCRIMMON The three titans of domestic Express Service have been narrowed to two as DHL exited the domestic market to focus on its International efforts. but it did not grow,” Wilson explained, noting that cargo went from 6-percent growth to zero-percent growth. “But this time we are actually seeing a drop. “We have uncertainty on prices of key components like fuel, but we also have this general recession that seems to be getting worse. And no one seems to know how long it will last. As serious as this downturn is, industry sources remain confident about the mid- and long-term future. But there are some silver linings and exceptions to the rule. While most U.S. markets outside of traditional gateways are still an unknown quantity, some Asian carriers are showing new interest in lower cost, non-traditional gateway airports such as Rickenbacker International Airport in Columbus, Ohio, and Huntsville International Airport. A $7.5 million expansion of the International Intermodal Center at the Port of Huntsville is slated to debut www.aci-na.org | CENTERLINES 15 http://www.aci-na.org
For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.