Public Power - October 2008 - (Page 18) The Future of FuelsWorld in a Carbon-Constrained BY CATHERINE ELDER For years, natural gas capacityhands-down was the winner in electricity expansion. The fuel was relatively cheap, capital costs were low, units were easy to site and license, and construction was quick and modular. Environmental policy favored natural gas as a clean-burning fuel, emboldened, in part, by industry studies suggesting that natural gas was plentiful. The result is that we now burn twice as much natural gas to generate electricity as we did 10 years ago. Today, electricity generation accounts for about one-third of U.S. natural gas consumption—up from 17 percent in 1998. However, aggregate demand for gas has not increased during this period. In fact, natural gas consumption in the United States from 1998 to 2007 remained relatively constant. Ignoring year-to-year fluctuations due to weather, total gas consumption stands at around 21 trillion cubic feet (tcf). In other words, we didn’t consume more natural gas to achieve this large-scale change in the electricity generation portfolio. Instead, beginning in 2000, we pushed prices up enough to squeeze out industrial demand, particularly in the chemical and fertilizer industries. We then transferred that gas to the electric sector. Reliance on natural gas is evident, looking at electricity sector generation data. From 1998 to 2007, electricity demand grew at approximately 1.5 percent a year, with aggregate demand in the United States climbing from about 3.5 trillion kilowatt-hours in 1998 to just over 4 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2007. During this period, the kilowatt-hours generated by most other fuels, such as coal, nuclear and hydro power, remained relatively constant; oil actually decreased. Virtually all of the growth in electricity demand over the last decade has been met with natural gas. Today, 20 percent of electricity generation comes from natural gas, representing an increase of nearly 70 percent in the kilowatt-hours generated using natural gas. In thinking about the future of fuels, the key question to keep in mind is: what fuel mix will we use to generate electricity? Many utilities, based on high and volatile natural gas prices, have turned away from PUBLIC POWER 18 OCTOBER 2008
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Public Power - October 2008 Public Power - October 2008 Contents Perspective 10 Questions The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World An Energy Revolution Energy Policy in 2009 and Beyond A Green Reincarnation Beyond the Green Bandwagon Reliability Green Energy Community Broadband Customer Service Hometown Connections Human Resources Parting Shot Public Power - October 2008 Public Power - October 2008 - Public Power - October 2008 (Page Cover1) Public Power - October 2008 - Public Power - October 2008 (Page Cover2) Public Power - October 2008 - Public Power - October 2008 (Page 1) Public Power - October 2008 - Public Power - October 2008 (Page 2) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 3) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 4) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 5) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 6) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 7) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 8) Public Power - October 2008 - Contents (Page 9) Public Power - October 2008 - Perspective (Page 10) Public Power - October 2008 - Perspective (Page 11) Public Power - October 2008 - 10 Questions (Page 12) Public Power - October 2008 - 10 Questions (Page 13) Public Power - October 2008 - 10 Questions (Page 14) Public Power - October 2008 - 10 Questions (Page 15) Public Power - October 2008 - 10 Questions (Page 16) Public Power - October 2008 - 10 Questions (Page 17) Public Power - October 2008 - The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World (Page 18) Public Power - October 2008 - The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World (Page 19) Public Power - October 2008 - The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World (Page 20) Public Power - October 2008 - The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World (Page 21) Public Power - October 2008 - The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World (Page 22) Public Power - October 2008 - The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World (Page 23) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 24) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 25) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 26) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 27) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 28) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 29) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 30) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 31) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 32) Public Power - October 2008 - An Energy Revolution (Page 33) Public Power - October 2008 - Energy Policy in 2009 and Beyond (Page 34) Public Power - October 2008 - Energy Policy in 2009 and Beyond (Page 35) Public Power - October 2008 - A Green Reincarnation (Page 36) Public Power - October 2008 - A Green Reincarnation (Page 37) Public Power - October 2008 - A Green Reincarnation (Page 38) Public Power - October 2008 - A Green Reincarnation (Page 39) Public Power - October 2008 - Beyond the Green Bandwagon (Page 40) Public Power - October 2008 - Beyond the Green Bandwagon (Page 41) Public Power - October 2008 - Reliability (Page 42) Public Power - October 2008 - Reliability (Page 43) Public Power - October 2008 - Green Energy (Page 44) Public Power - October 2008 - Green Energy (Page 45) Public Power - October 2008 - Green Energy (Page 46) Public Power - October 2008 - Green Energy (Page 47) Public Power - October 2008 - Community Broadband (Page 48) Public Power - October 2008 - Community Broadband (Page 49) Public Power - October 2008 - Community Broadband (Page 50) Public Power - October 2008 - Customer Service (Page 51) Public Power - October 2008 - Hometown Connections (Page 52) Public Power - October 2008 - Hometown Connections (Page 53) Public Power - October 2008 - Human Resources (Page 54) Public Power - October 2008 - Human Resources (Page 55) Public Power - October 2008 - Parting Shot (Page 56) Public Power - October 2008 - Parting Shot (Page Cover3) Public Power - October 2008 - Parting Shot (Page Cover4)
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