Public Power - October 2008 - (Page 21)

Alternative Resource 3 Petroleum 2% Hydro 5% Nuclear 25% Natural Gas 30% Renewables 20% Coal 18% Hybrid mix. In an effort to see if a more realistic scenario could be found, we explored a hybrid mix, which effectively became a variation on mix number one. In this hybrid scenario, load growth was set at 1.1 percent per year, that “half-way” point between recent load growth and that projected by EPA. Nuclear expanded to 25 percent and carbon capture and storage to 12 percent by 2036—same as projected by EPA. Renewables were set at 20 percent, consistent with nationwide renewable portfolio standard requirement discussions. The availability of carbon capture and storage allows coal emissions to fall. Recall that mix number one offered low gas burns—only 4 tcf—but achieved that by increasing nuclear generation well above the level of EPA’s “core scenario” to 30 percent of the generation portfolio. In contrast, the hybrid mix reduced that nuclear generation back to 25 percent (just above the “core generation is initially fixed at today’s 19 percent. Gas must pick up the slack. The preliminary result shows that gas burns would increase to a stunning 14.6 Tcf by 2036. In addition, this scenario results in carbon emissions of 2,100 million tons, failing to meet the 1,700 million ton target. In order to meet the target, we adjusted nuclear generation upward from the initial assumption (19 percent of the portfolio), until the carbon target was met. The amount of nuclear generation required turned out to be 25 percent of the overall generation portfolio. This allowed the gas burn to fall to 12.4 tcf, still more than half of total current U.S. gas consumption. Since the United States has never produced more than 19 tcf (dry) in any one year, the pressure on natural gas prices would likely be extreme. We tested one more adjustment to mix number three by cutting load growth to zero. In that case, gas requirements would drop to a much more manageable 8 tcf. look to the sun Hybrid Mix Petroleum 2% Natural Gas 16% Hydro 5% Nuclear 25% SunEdison understands the challenges municipal utilities face regarding their renewable energy needs. At SunEdison, we make it simple for public power agencies to adopt solar by offering long-term predictable pricing with no up-front capital costs. Our fully managed solar services allow you to pay only for the power generated and never for the construction or maintenance of the solar power plant itself. So whether you are looking to strengthen your existing renewable portfolio, or position yourself ahead of anticipated mandates look to the sun and look to SunEdison. utility scale solar Coal CCS 12% Coal 20% Renewables 20% Visit us at booth 1839 San Diego, CA Oct. 13-16 www.SunEdison.com 1.866.SunEdison www.APPAnet.org OCTOBER 2008 21 http://www.sunedison.com http://www.APPAnet.org

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Public Power - October 2008

Public Power - October 2008 Contents Perspective 10 Questions The Future of Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World An Energy Revolution Energy Policy in 2009 and Beyond A Green Reincarnation Beyond the Green Bandwagon Reliability Green Energy Community Broadband Customer Service Hometown Connections Human Resources Parting Shot

Public Power - October 2008

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