HR Professional - February/March 2009 - (Page 62) I N T ERV I EW h having about 1.5 to 1.6 c children per family—the same as Canada. In about five y years, China is going to run o out of young workers, which w will lead to labour shortages, rising wages and higher p per-capita incomes over the n next two decades. Growth in China will come from rising per capita incomes, but not population growth. Meanwhile, India has an average of three children per family. This means huge numbers of young people to keep wages and incomes lower. India will continue to be a lowcost competitor in the world; China will not. HRP: What can Canada do to keep pace with the growing economies of Turkey and Brazil? DF: Why do we want to keep pace? We’ve got to stop thinking about growth—growth is bad for the planet. There is nothing wrong with slower economic growth, you can still get richer. As long as the economic growth is faster than the population growth, per-capita incomes go up. We can improve our standard of living by not keeping up with them. Japan is about to see negative economic growth, but because their population is shrinking, their per-capita incomes are rising. I don’t think it should be our job to keep up with these countries— it’s their turn in the sun. It’s time for Canada to consolidate and concentrate on what we do well, such as knowledge-based industries. We can, for example, export university education or help other countries set up public health systems. HRP: What is the easiest way to predict a country’s potential for prosperity? DF: Fertility rates. Replacement fertility is 2.1—you need two children to replace yourself and your partner and an extra tenth to compensate for people who can’t have children, don’t have children or women who don’t reach the age to have children. Half a child more and half a child less is not a big deal. So if your country is in the range of 1.6 to 2.6, it will have a sustainable society and sustainable growth. If a country has more than 2.6 children per family, they will have a real challenge creating enough jobs for its young people, and if you don’t create enough jobs for young people they will either leave or tear the country apart. So there are lots Feb 1 400063_smartserve.indd r u a r y / M a r c h 62 2009 11/20/08 2:08:33 PM HR P ROF ES SI O N AL https://smartserve.org/online_training.asp
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