Jetrader - January/February 2009 - (Page 17) appraisal Boeing MD11F John Keitz President, BK Associates, Inc. Tel: (516) 365-6272 E-mail: john.keitz@bkassociates.com Photo courtesy of The Boeing Company Background The passenger version of the MD11 was introduced in 1989 by McDonnell Douglas, who merged with Boeing in 1997. Boeing continued production of the MD11 until 2000 when production ceased. Between 1989 and 1998, 147 passenger MD11s were produced, followed by 55 MD11Fs. The OEM MD11s were split nearly evenly between General Electric CF6-80C2D1F power (73) and Pratt & Whitney PW4460 power (74). Of the OEM freighters, 48 were GE-powered and seven were PW-powered. Early on, it became apparent that the MD11 would be more successful as a freighter and a conversion program was begun. Today, only 24 passenger aircraft are left with four operators. The rest (164) are all freighters. It’s just a matter of time before the 24 are also converted. The OEM freighter has some slight performance advantages over the BCF (Boeing Converted freighter). However, with the right combination tradeoff of payload-range they are comparable and our values are the same for OEM or BCF. Current Fleet and Backlog by Region as of October 2008 No. of Region Operators Africa/Middle East 1 Asia/Pacific 4 Europe 4 Latin America/Caribbean 1 North America 3 Total 13 InService 4 22 34 2 102 164 Percentage 2 14 21 1 62 100 The current fleet is dominated by Federal Express and UPS, which account for 96 aircraft, representing 59 percent of the fl eet. Current and Future Market Outlook: Basic Specs Wingspan – 169 Ft., 10 Inches Length – 200 Ft., 2 Inches Maximum Takeoff Weight – 602,500 to 630,500 Pounds Maximum Landing Weight – 471,500 to 491,500 Pounds Maximum Zero Fuel Weight – 451,300 to 461,300 Pounds Maximum Payload – 197,500 (OEM); 194,700 (BCF) Fuel Capacity – 38,615 U.S. Gallons Design Range – 3,435 to 3,971 n.mi. As this is written, three months before you get to read it, the air cargo market is desperate. IATA’s Director General said the rate of deterioration in traffic in September 2008 was “alarming.” Cargo traffic dropped 7.7 percent and even in the largest market, AsiaPacific, the decline was 10.6 percent. Despite the current state of the world’s economy, we know our industry is cyclical and it’s just a matter of when the recovery starts. With help from the price of oil, and capacity cuts, some are predicting near term profitability for airlines and a beginning of the recovery by the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2009. This, plus the dominance of the fl eet by FedEx and UPS—who are unlikely to fail—suggests MD11F values will be unaffected in the long term after a short term hit. MD11F Values YR. OF MFR. 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 CMV 37.00 40.40 43.80 47.20 50.60 54.00 2008 40.20 43.85 47.55 51.25 54.90 58.60 2009 39.00 42.55 46.05 49.60 53.15 56.70 2010 36.50 40.05 43.65 47.30 50.90 54.50 2011 35.60 38.90 42.25 45.60 48.90 52.25 2012 33.90 37.05 40.20 43.40 46.55 49.70 2013 32.40 35.40 38.40 41.45 44.45 47.45 2014 31.65 34.55 37.50 40.45 43.40 46.35 2015 30.65 33.45 36.20 38.95 41.75 44.50 2016 29.30 31.80 34.25 36.80 39.30 41.85 2017 27.35 30.00 32.60 35.30 37.90 40.60 2018 25.80 28.55 31.20 33.90 36.55 39.25 Base Values (2.5% inflation) The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Information current as of 10/30/2008. Jetrader 17
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