Jetrader - March/April 2009 - (Page 15)

Freighter Fleet Doubles, Shifting Toward Large Widebodies Standard-body ( 80 tonnes) 2027 2007 35% 26% 39% 35% 641 New Conversions 1,323 New Conversions 461 New Production 11 New Production 30% 35% 711 New Conversions 211 New Production 1,948 freighters 3,892 freighters (1,948 existing plus 3,358 new less 1,414 retired) COPYRIGHT © 2008 THE BOEING COMPANY Flight Testing: The ﬁrst 747-400 BCF takes off during ﬂight testing. The BCF option complements Boeing’s suite of production freighter offerings, providing operators with multiple options as they seek to match airplanes and routes on highly disparate cargo missions while balancing capital outlays with operating expenses. challenges during that time. While fuel prices declined close to 30 percent during the third quarter of 2008, the worsening economic and ﬁnancial conditions saw trafﬁc levels continuing to fall. GDP is the Key: In forecasting air-cargo trafﬁc growth, it is economic activity—as measured by world GDP—that remains the primary driver. World GDP grew by 3.7 percent in 2007, following 3.9 percent growth in 2006. Clearly in the near term, the world economic outlook is gloomy as a result of the global liquidity crisis, loan defaults and resulting impacts, with GDP expected to decline in 2009. A sustained recovery in economic activity is not expected before second-half 2010. Historic Reminders: Given current conditions, concerns over the industry’s growth prospects are warranted. However, the forecast is quick to point out that projections of world GDP growth averaging just higher than 3 percent over the next two decades, continued industry globalization, increased productivity improvement and cost-reduction efforts should help world air cargo trafﬁc growth return to historic norms. As examples, it points to the industry’s resilience in recovering from previous economic impacts, such as the Asian economic crisis, the events of 9/11, and the SARS outbreak. “Our research tells us that long-term economic growth, freighter ﬂeet renewal and moderating jet fuel prices will stimulate air cargo growth,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “These positive prospects will prevail despite the industry’s concerns about out current economic challenges.” Asia to Lead: Among the world’s air cargo markets, the new cargo forecast expects Asia to continue to lead all global trafﬁc routes. Domestic China and intra-Asia markets will grow 9.9 percent and 8.1 percent per year, respectively, and Asian-related market growth is predicted to exceed the global average. “For the ﬁrst time since late 2003, 2008 has brought market contraction. However, history reminds us that the air cargo market returns robustly when the economy strengthens,” said Tom Crabtree, a regional marketing director for Boeing Commercial and primary WACF. “Cargo remains crucial to globalization efforts.” Future Freighter: Boeing’s new production freighter (the 777F) is seen during ﬂight testing. The airplane will ﬂy farther than any other freighter (9,065 kilometers, or 4,895 nautical miles) while providing more capacity than any other twin-engine freighter. (Photo source: Boeing) Jetrader 15

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - March/April 2009

Jetrader - March/April 2009 A Message from the President Contents Calendar/News Crunching the Numbers World Air Cargo Forecast Brain Drain in the Transportation Industry Aircraft Appraisals From the ISTAT Foundation Aviation History Advertising Index

Jetrader - March/April 2009

For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.