Jetrader - March/April 2009 - (Page 17)

Forecast Sees Fleet Doubling: The new forecast predicts that the world freighter ﬂeet will increase to 3,890 airplanes from the current level of 1,950 by the year Monthly percentage change Average spot jet fuel over prior year price, U.S. cents per gallon 2027 (see chart). Large freighters, such as 30% 500 the 747 and 777, will ultimately represent more than a third of the ﬂeet, compared to about 25 percent today, while provid20% 400 ing nearly three-fourths of total capacity. This segment will require about 640 new 10% 300 factory-built airplanes. More than 75 percent of the approximately 3,360 freighters projected to join the ﬂeet—or about 2,500 0% 200 airplanes—will come from passenger-tofreighter conversions, while about 850 will be new production freighters. -10% 100 Monthly percentage change Conversion Challenges: With the lion’s Average 12-month history share of new cargo airlift expected to come Average spot jet fuel price -20% 0 from conversion stock, conversion providers are challenged to assess the market and its driving factors. “The feedstock for the wide body freight market has been wouldn’t undertake the effort required without a solid return on meager due to the enormous growth in international passenger the investment. The forecast helps steer product development and trafﬁc in recent years and the delay in the 787’s delivery,” said introduction efforts over the long term and deﬁne the capabilities Joe Ozimek, Boeing Capital Corp. director of airplane programs and of new offerings in the nearer term. This results in product developvaluations. Boeing’s leasing ﬂeet includes both single- and twinment of airplanes with the greatest prospects for market success. aisle freighters. “The single-aisle freight market will have a variety The cargo forecast helps operators with ﬂeet planning and purof good candidates for freighters. Take the 757, for example. With chasing decisions, a process that can span months or years given the 737-900ER, which offers a trip cost advantage of better that the investment required. The cargo market forecast, along with the 20 percent, poised to replace it, the 757 has demonstrated an abilmost recent market trends, provides the industry an invaluable tool ity to be a very good freighter and could provide nearly 1,000 for inclusion to the decision making process. The entire 2008/2009 airplanes for conversion. Along with numerous A320 family models World Air Cargo Forecast is available on the Web at www.boeing.com/ and the 737 classics, the feedstock for single-aisle freighters sees commercial/cargo and as a downloadable PDF document. very well supplied,” said Ozimek. Meeting market needs is key: Market forecasts attract a good Thanks to Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Boeing Capital amount of media interest and serve as analyst fodder, but Boeing Corporation for supplying editorial content for this article. High Fuel Prices Continue to Dampen World Air Cargo Growth 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 January January January January January January January January January From Aircraft records scanning, processing and storage to airlines, lessors and MROs • London-Gatwick headquarters with a worldwide service • Delivering your records in STREAM – high quality, easy to retrieve and searchable digital aircraft records • DVD or 24/7 Secure Online Access For a demonstration contact: +44 (0)1293 817 655 or visit our website at www.waviatech.com Jetrader 17 http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cargo http://www.waviatech.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - March/April 2009

Jetrader - March/April 2009 A Message from the President Contents Calendar/News Crunching the Numbers World Air Cargo Forecast Brain Drain in the Transportation Industry Aircraft Appraisals From the ISTAT Foundation Aviation History Advertising Index

Jetrader - March/April 2009

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