Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 19

Chart 3

Fleet Forecast

the market experienced its ﬁrst wave of large-scale aircraft retirements as the prior generation lost its footing. The introduction of the MD-80, 757s and 737 Classics, to be

Interestingly, hidden in this illustration is our projection that close to 500 early-vintage A320s will also be retired over the next 10 years, many of which will be 25 years and older.
fair, did encourage the replacement cycle, although initially the prior generation ﬂeet declined by only 20 percent from the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, while the global ﬂeet grew by a net 50 percent. Turning to the current in production aircraft, the A320 family and 737NGs marked a substantial change in the way the ﬂeet grew. Production winnowed down to a highly competitive Airbus and Boeing duopoly, and the two programs drove a near doubling of the narrowbody ﬂeet. As retirements of MD-80s and 737 Classics accelerate, this share is likely to rise to more than 90 percent in the next 10 years. Chart 3: Fleet Forecast illustrates Ascend’s Global Aircraft ﬂeet forecast to 2020.

Quite clearly, the A320 family and 737 NG ﬂeets will soon overshadow all other types in terms of production rates and total installed base. Retirements for the MD-80s and 737 Classics will take almost 1,500 aircraft out of service, many of which will be well shy of 25 years. Interestingly, hidden in this illustration is our projection that close to 500 early-vintage A320s will also be retired over the next 10 years, many of which will be 25 years and older. With the end of production for the A320 family nowhere in sight and energized by the large incremental improvements promised by Sharklets plus new engines, Airbus has played its hand to take the lead in this market—for the time being at least. If the combined operating cost beneﬁt of the upgrades comes in as advertised at 15 percent, it may well prove to be a sea change event. In a high-fuel environment above $100/ bbl, the cost advantage could increase dramatically. Boeing’s muted response to date seems to indicate that they are more inclined to consider a clean sheet design for entry into service sometime around 2020, adding an interesting twist to the story and potentially stealing the NEO’s thunder. Overall if there is one takeaway to remember from all this, it is that useful life is a moving target—it oscillates depending on market conditions, by get ting longer in boom times and a low fuel price environment and shorter in recessions. With current production aircraft technology being more than 20 years old now, a sea change is well overdue and the next decade will be an exciting one to watch. Jetrader 19

Jetrader - March/April 2011

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - March/April 2011

Jetrader - March/April 2011
A Message from the President
Table of Contents
Calendar/News
Q&A: David Neeleman
Aircraft Financing 2011: Expanding Liquidity Meets More Deliveries
Mind the Generation Gap
Breaking Up is Hard(er) to Do
State of the Regions: North America
‘You’re Late on the Payments!’
Relationships Versus Brand Marketing in Aviation
Aircraft Appraisals
Aviation History
Advertiser.com/ Advertiser Index
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Jetrader - March/April 2011
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Cover2
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 4
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Table of Contents
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 6
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Q&A: David Neeleman
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 9
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 10
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 11
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Aircraft Financing 2011: Expanding Liquidity Meets More Deliveries
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 13
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 14
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 15
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 16
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Mind the Generation Gap
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 18
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 19
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 20
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Breaking Up is Hard(er) to Do
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 22
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 23
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - State of the Regions: North America
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 25
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 26
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 27
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 28
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - ‘You’re Late on the Payments!’
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 30
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 31
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Relationships Versus Brand Marketing in Aviation
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 33
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 34
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 36
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 37
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 38
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 39
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 40
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Aviation History
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 42
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 43
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 44
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Advertiser.com/ Advertiser Index
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - 46
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Cover3
Jetrader - March/April 2011 - Cover4
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