Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 41
appraisal
Airbus A320-200
Tom Burke, ISTAT Certified Appraiser Managing Director, Valuations Morten Beyer & Agnew Tel: 703-276-3200 TBurke@mba.aero
Background
The initial variant of the Airbus A320 family of aircraft, the A320-100, was launched in 1982 as a possible replacement for the then popular 727 and as a competitor to the 737-300/-400/-500 series. The aircraft incorporated advanced features including fly-by-wire flight control, composite tailplane and an EFIS cockpit. The A320-200 has been steadily improved over the years with the latest announcement being the A320neo, New Engine Option. This will keep the A320 family in production beyond 2020. A freighter conversion program was contemplated by Airbus but has recently been suspended. There are currently 2,578 A320-200 aircraft in service with 227 operators worldwide. Approximately 33.1 percent of the total current fleet is concentrated in Europe. There are significant numbers of the type in all regions. The distribution of aircraft is shown in the nearby table: Airbus A320-200 Regional Fleet Distribution Region Europe Pacific Rim North America South America Middle East Asia Africa Grand Total In Service 852 705 458 217 161 119 66 2578 Parked 30 2 25 13 7 22 8 87 Total 882 707 483 230 168 121 74 2665 % of Total 33.1% 26.5% 18.1% 8.6% 6.3% 4.5% 2.8%
Source: ACAS Database November 2011
Values
The introduction of the A320neo will accelerate the decline of residual values for the older aircraft once the neo becomes established in the market. These lower values might lead to a reinstatement of the freighter conversion program. Due to the extremely long production run and the many improvements over the years, extreme care must be taken in appraising this model as age is only one factor to consider. VALUE MATRIX for A320-200 2012 2012 Base Value US$ M 7.57 10.09 13.45 17.94 23.91 31.88 43.98 6.87 9.27 12.51 16.87 22.76 30.71 42.63 6.22 8.49 11.59 15.83 21.61 29.50 41.19 5.61 7.75 10.71 14.80 20.45 28.25 39.68 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Year of Manufacture 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
CMV US$ M 5.30 7.60 10.82 15.43 22.00 30.60 43.98
Future Base Value Inflated at 2.0% per annum 5.05 7.06 9.87 13.80 19.29 26.97 38.11 4.65 6.41 9.07 12.83 18.15 25.68 36.50 5.80 8.30 11.89 17.02 24.37 34.85 5.23 7.58 10.98 15.92 23.06 33.17 4.71 6.90 10.12 14.84 21.76 31.49 4.65 6.27 9.30 13.79 20.47 29.80 5.67 8.51 12.78 19.20 28.11
Source: mba future aircraft values (fav) - Jet Transport Plus, Jan 2012 edition The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Jetrader 41
http://www.ISTAT.org
Jetrader - March/April 2012
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - March/April 2012
A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Q&A: Honoring ISTAT Award Winner Henry Hubschman
Export Credit Evolves
A320 Family: A Continuous Investment in Success
Financier Liability Protection Further Eroded in Florida
Put Your Two Cents In
ISTAT Members Fly to Honor “Sully”
ISTAT Scholarships Changing Lives
ISTAT Foundation 2011 Grant Recipients
Aircraft Appraisals
From the ISTAT Foundation
How to Be a Memorable Leader
Prepare Yourself for the Challenge of Change
ISTAT Members on the Move
Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover1
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover2
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 3
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 4
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 6
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 7
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 8
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 10
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Q&A: Honoring ISTAT Award Winner Henry Hubschman
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 12
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 13
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Export Credit Evolves
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 15
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 16
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 17
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - A320 Family: A Continuous Investment in Success
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 19
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 20
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 21
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Financier Liability Protection Further Eroded in Florida
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 23
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 24
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 25
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Put Your Two Cents In
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 27
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 28
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 29
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Members Fly to Honor “Sully”
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 31
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 32
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 33
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Scholarships Changing Lives
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 35
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 36
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 37
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 38
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Foundation 2011 Grant Recipients
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 40
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 42
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 43
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 44
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - From the ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - How to Be a Memorable Leader
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 47
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 48
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 49
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Prepare Yourself for the Challenge of Change
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 51
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - ISTAT Members on the Move
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - 53
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover3
Jetrader - March/April 2012 - cover4
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