Jetrader - May/June 2010 - 27

appraisal

Bob Cowgill Vice President, ACI Aviation Consulting Tel: 540-428-4388 Fax: 540-428-4388 bcowgill@aciaviation.com www.aciaviation.com

Background
Introduced in July 2005 as an improvement over the slow selling 737-900, the 737-900ER incorporated several enhancements including standard APB winglets and a ﬂat rear pressure bulkhead which allowed two additional emergency exits. This change permitted seating for an additional 26 (single-class) passengers and, with the option for two auxiliary fuel tanks, made the aircraft more competitive with the Airbus A321. Indonesia’s Lion Air launched with 30 orders with current plans for 178. The 737-900ER is the basis for the BBJ3 corporate jet.

Current and Future Market Outlook
As the largest variant of the Boeing 737NG family, the success of the 737-900ER hinges primarily on its perception as the successor to the very popular 757-200. Lacking the passenger capacity, range and hot/high runway capability of the 757, the 900ER still enjoys commonality with the 3,100 strong 737NG ﬂeet and a regular stream of improvements dedicated to that ﬂeet. With a reasonable backlog, small ﬂeet and only two aircraft available for lease, the 737-900ER has enjoyed a fair level of value stability. Much depends on the fortunes of the largest operator of the type, Lion Air,

Appraisal Methodology
Value determinations take into account recent transaction information (where available), long-term growth of airline trafﬁc, expected longevity and competitive standing of the subject aircraft relative to current and future aircraft, plus historical trends of past aircraft values. Unusual market concentration; high (or low) fuel economy; obsolescence; any recent new orders; number and percentage of the type in storage, for sale or lease; weights and engine model options; and non-terminated high cost airworthiness directives (where known) also enter into the appraised values.

who holds 55 percent of the operating ﬂeet and 70 percent of the orders. Any reconsideration in the ﬂeet plans of this airline could result in marginalization of the type. The low volume of recent orders, 12 in 2009, is of concern although the aging 757 ﬂeet should beneﬁt the 900ER as some operators may wish to stay within the Boeing family in spite of the sacriﬁce of capacity and performance. The relatively late introduction of the type and its small ﬂeet size makes comparisons with the more mature Airbus A321 program difﬁcult, but delays in the announcement of a narrow-body replacement by both Boeing and Airbus will likely result in further orders.

Basic Specs
Wingspan .............................112 feet 7 inches (34.3m); with winglets: 117 feet 5 inches (35.7m) Length ............................................................................................ 138 feet 2 inches (42.1m) Typical Passenger Layouts ............................... 215 in Single Class / 180 in Dual Class (12F/168Y) Maximum Takeoff Weight ..................................................................... 187,700 lbs (85,130 kg) Maximum Landing Weight .................................................................... 146,300 lbs (66,361 kg) Maximum Fuel Capacity........................................................ 7,837 US Gal. (w/2 auxiliary tanks) Range ..................................... 3,200 NM (5,925 km)-Two Class; 2,700 NM (4,999 km)-Single Class Engines ............................................................................. 2 x CFMI CFM56-7, 27,300 lbs thrust

Boeing 737-900ER Current Fleet & Backlog as of February 28, 2010
In Service Firm Orders Options Stored 69 .................................... 252 ...........................................4 ..................................... 0 Average age: 1.30 Years

Current and Future Values as of April 2010
YOB 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 CMV 49.50 46.29 43.30 40.93 38.65 2010 BV 49.50 47.73 45.51 43.43 41.39 2011 47.20 45.47 43.24 41.25 39.40 2012 45.01 43.17 41.09 39.28 37.56 2013 42.77 41.05 39.09 37.34 35.69 2014 40.66 39.06 37.18 35.46 33.83 2015 38.74 37.12 35.26 33.57 32.02 2016 36.86 35.21 33.39 31.69 30.21 2017 34.92 33.36 31.53 29.87 28.53 2018 33.08 31.52 29.78 28.17 26.85 2019 31.25 29.73 28.00 26.44 25.25 2020 29.48 27.96 26.34 24.83 23.67

Inﬂ ation Rate: 2.5% The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Information current as of 4/10. The Boeing 757-200 appraisal in the January/February 2010 edition of Jetrader incorrectly referred to the 757-200F instead of the 757-200. The statement should have read “Winglets are available for the 757-200 with a list price of $975,000.” Jetrader 27

Photo courtesy of The Boeing Company.

Boeing 737-900ER

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Jetrader - May/June 2010

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