Jetrader - May/June 2012 - 9

Forecast at ISTAT Americas 2012 Beckons Bright Year Ahead
Manufacturers look forward to a year of record deliveries, some critics are wary of the plan
Despite the weather that threatened the ISTAT Foundation Golf Tournament and the clay shooting event, the ISTAT Americas 2012 event proved to be another extraordinary gathering of industry leaders from all sectors of commercial aviation. As the storms passed and the event opened to the ﬁrst day of speakers and panel discussions, event attendance reached yet another record—more than 1,300 participants from 30 countries. “The growth of ISTAT, and our annual meeting, reﬂects the continuing growth of the aviation industry,” said Joe Ozimek, ISTAT president and vice president for 737 MAX marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Four years ago, industry deliveries were about $62 billion; today we’re looking at $100 billion and beyond. As investments, aircraft have done spectacularly well through the economic downturn. ISTAT has become an industry leader because people acknowledge that our non-proﬁt nature lets us be unbiased,” Ozimek said. Much of the discussion during the conference centered around the $100 billion aircraft delivery forecast expected for the year ahead. In his industry outlook, AVITAS Senior Vice President Adam M. Pilarski, Ph.D., shared his concerns regarding the forecast. “There’s a chance for another one of those perfect storms,” he said regarding the unstable mix of the European recession and slowdown in China, rising oil prices, a lack of financing and a “bubble” of aircraft orders. “I think the announced rates are not compatible with the Airbus and Boeing forecasts,” he said. Nicholas Calio, president and CEO of the airline trade association, Airlines for America (A4A), opened the ﬂoor as the keynote speaker with his outline of the challenges facing airlines today and the A4A’s plan to address governmental regulations and next generation technology in order to increase the overall proﬁtability of the industry. “As you all know well, orders and the market for aircraft have changed dramatically in just the last 10 years. These changes reﬂect huge investments in the world’s important growth markets and investments in countries that are redeﬁning models of aviation to drive new economic development opportunities,” he said. For more from Calio, see the interview on page 7. Representatives from Boeing and Airbus, as well as regional manufacturers, provided their expected delivery schedules and their thoughts on the booming order book. Andrew Shankland, senior vice president – leasing markets at Airbus, discussed the market outlook for world trafﬁc growth and updates on the manufacturer’s popular programs, including the A330, A350 and the A320neo. Shankland spoke of the company’s record number of orders and backlog, stating that, “It’s our job to take cycles out of the industry.” Boeing’s Senior Vice President, Marketing Michael B. Blair expressed a similar conﬁdence when he said, “Whatever cycle

Excerpts from the Financiers Panel
Q: What’s ahead for ﬁnancing markets for the rest of 2012 and heading into 2013? Tim Myers, Vice President and General Manager, Aircraft Financial Services, Boeing Capital Corporation A: We see 2013 as the year of the capital markets. There are regional capital markets springing up. The market is still very robust. Bertrand Grabowski, Managing Director of Aviation Finance, DVB Bank SE A: I do believe 2012 will be difﬁcult for most of the European banks. We will be a bit more cautious in 2012 than in 2011. There will be much more volatility in price. Q: What’s ahead for Export-Import Bank? Robert Morin, Vice President of the Transportation Division, Export-Import Bank A: Clearly, it’s not healthy in the long term for export credit agencies to be doing as much as they’ve been doing. 2011 was our busiest year, even when it came to commercial aircraft. 2012 is shaping up to be busy. I think we’ll do more ﬁnancing to Africa and South America than we’ve ever done. Continued on p. 10 Jetrader 9

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Jetrader - May/June 2012

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