Jetrader - July/August 2009 - 16

appraisal Embraer 195 Background Dr. Stuart Hatcher Head of Valuations & Modelling, IBA Group Ltd. Tel: +44 1293 772743 stuart.hatcher@ibagroup.com The Embraer 195 is a twin-engine, single-aisle, medium-range jet that is the largest member of the E-jet family. In terms of market position, the E-195 operates in the highly congested 100-130 seat market that is currently serviced in some way by the B737-600, A318, B717-200, CS100, Fokker 100, ARJ121-900 and CRJ1000 aircraft. Embraer currently offers three versions of the E-195 aircraft—the Standard (STD), Long-Range (LR) and Advanced-Range (AR) versions. Whilst the STD and LR versions differ only in MTOW, the AR version is provided with additional structural reinforcement and improved the range by a further 250 nm over the LR version. As of May 1, 2009, the worldwide ﬂeet of E-195 aircraft comprises 36 aircraft with eight operators, plus one test aircraft with Embraer. Basic Specs Length Wingspan Fuel Capacity Range 126 ft 10 in 94 ft 3 in 4,260 U.S. gallons 108 passengers 2,200 nm Maximum Takeoff Weight 107,564 to 115,280 lbs Maximum Landing Weight 99,208 to 100,972 lbs Passenger Conﬁguration: 122 Seats: 1 class (30”-31”) / 106 Seats: 2 class /(38”-31”) Maximum Zero Fuel Weight 93,696 to 93,917 lbs Operating Weight Empty 63,603 to 63,824 lbs Average Fleet Age 1.14 years Current Fleet and Backlog by Region as of May 2009 Region Africa/Middle East Asia/Paciﬁc Europe Latin America/Caribbean North America Total In Service Backlog Options Stored Total Percentage 8 0 24 4 0 36 0 0 17 27 1 45 0 0 12 20 0 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 41 31 1 81 10% 0% 51% 38% 1% 100% Current Fleet and Backlog by Engine as of May 2009 Engine General Electric Total In Service 72 72 Backlog 90 90 Stored 0 0 Total 162 162 % 100% 100% Current and Future Market Outlook This market segment has always been difﬁcult to predict with no clear market domination by one aircraft. The orderbook history for the E-195 is fairly turbulent, which doesn’t look good when compared to the success of the other members of the E-Jet family. With a total of 141 orders and 102 options, 60 orders have been cancelled along with 70 options. This leaves a total orderbook of 81 aircraft with 32 options. With a current ﬂeet of 36 aircraft across eight operators, the backlog therefore remains at just 45, but the E-195 is very popular amongst its operators who recognise the operating cost advantage it provides over a heavier older generation aircraft. Orders from new operators are becoming less likely as lower fuel pricing has slowed the push towards bigger aircraft to lower seat costs, meaning that the E-190 and smaller members of the family will perform better. May 2009 Appraisal Values: Embraer 195 LR, General Electric CF34-10E7, 111,972lbs Year of Delivery 2009 2008 2007 2006 CMV 29.40 28.11 27.08 25.96 Base Values - Inﬂated at 2.5% per annum 2009 30.00 28.69 27.64 26.49 2010 28.43 27.26 26.34 25.28 2011 26.98 25.95 25.10 24.11 2012 25.65 24.70 23.92 22.99 2013 24.39 23.51 22.78 21.91 2014 23.18 22.37 21.69 20.86 2015 22.03 21.27 20.62 19.83 2016 20.92 20.20 19.58 18.82 2017 19.85 19.16 18.56 17.82 2018 18.81 18.15 17.56 16.84 2019 17.79 17.15 16.58 15.86 CMV = Current Market Value. The base value of an aircraft assumes its physical condition is average for an aircraft of its type and age, and its maintenance time status is at mid-life, mid-time (or beneﬁting from an above-average maintenance status if it is new or nearly new, as the case may be). All values have been determined in accordance with ISTAT deﬁnitions of base value and current market value and therefore relate to a single asset only. The aircraft values stated herein are the product and property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever. Information current as of 5/15/2009. 16 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
Jetrader - July/August 2009

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