Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 14

additional growth, with 43 percent of the demand from Asian customers and 23 percent from Middle East customers.

Updated Look at Freighter Fleet Market
Ahead of the company’s next biennial World Cargo Forecast due out this fall, the

new CMO provides a glimpse into freighter market developments. The world freighter fleet is expected to grow from 1,750 to 2,980 airplanes— an increase of more than two-thirds. This will require the addition of 2,490 freighters, including 740 new-production freighters and 1,750 airplanes converted

Chart 3: Air travel growth varies by market
2009 traffic
Asia Pacific* Within North America Within Europe Within China Europe – Asia Pacific North Atlantic Middle East – Asia Pacific Transpacific Within Latin America North America – Latin America Europe – Latin America Africa – Europe Within/to CIS

Added traffic 2010-2029

Annual growth%

7.1% 2.8% 4.1% 7.9% 5.6% 4.3% 7.5% 4.8% 7.1% 5.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8%
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 RPKs, billions 2,500 3,000 3,500

World Average Growth: 5.3%

from passenger models. Large (more than 80 tonnes/88.2 tons capacity) freighters will account for 520 new-build airplanes. (See Chart 4, this page). Medium (40 to 80 tonnes/44.1 to 88.2 tons) freighters will total 210 airplanes. The needs for virtually all of the standard-body freighters (less than 45 tonnes/49.6 tons) are expected to come from passenger-to-freighter conversions. The recession resulted in significantly reduced air cargo traffic in 2009, the base year for the CMO. Boeing now forecasts that world air cargo traffic will increase 5.9 percent annually through 2029. Included is the current strong year traffic growth that Boeing estimates will reach nearly 14 percent over full-year 2009 levels—a significant spike in the 20-year growth projection. “The inclusion of the high-traffic growth levels in 2010, following the recession, is driving our cargo forecast upward,” said Tinseth. “However, the strength of the industry and its growth will continue to be driven by sound fundamentals—speed and reliability, consumer product innovation and global industrial interdependence.”

‘Power Users’ Most Impressed
Last year the Boeing annual forecast moved away from being largely a printed product to become entirely Web-based. “What we were really aiming for was improving accessibility to the data,” said Head Forecaster Warner. “We have diversity among our users, from someone who just wants a few high-level slides to folks who have bookshelves full of CMOs going back to the ‘70s. It’s these ‘power users’ that we hear from the most. They often have to plot things up by hand. Now, they can have more accessibility and can pull data and download it to Excel. And instead of printing up 4,000 to 5,000 booklets, as we have done in previous years, in 2009 we had over 700,000 visits to our CMO website.”

*includes within China

COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

Chart 4: Future freighter deliveries will be led by demand for large widebodies
New freighter deliveries: 740
2010–2029

Market value: $180 billion
2010–2029

600 500 Airplane units 400 300 200 100 0

70% Market value

150 125 100 75 50 1% 25 0

77%

29%

23% <1% $1B
Standard Less than 45 tonnes

520
Large More than 80 tonnes

210
Medium 40 to 80 tonnes

10
Standard Less than 45 tonnes

$140B
Large More than 80 tonnes

$40B
Medium 40 to 80 tonnes

Read More Online
For those who miss the printed copy, the Boeing site includes a PDF version of the booklet that can be printed out. To see the complete 2010 CMO or download the PDF, visit http://www.boeing.com/ cmo. For a brief video of Randy Tinseth talking about Boeing’s Current Market Outlook, visit http://bit.ly/9DXjtc.

COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOE E BOEING COMPANY

Widebodies to Lead – Demand for new or factory-built freighters will be led by large freighters, those capable of carrying 80 or more tonnes of payload, according to Boeing’s latest market outlook forecast. Given that most traffic growth is projected to occur on long-haul traffic lanes tied to Asia, carriers will increasingly demand those aircraft which have the lowest unit costs and longest range. (Boeing graphic)

14 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading


http://www.boeing.com/cmo http://www.boeing.com/cmo http://www.bit.ly/9DXjtc

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - September/October 2010

Jetrader - September/October 2010
A Message from the President
Contents
Calendar/New
Q&A: Dr. Alan Epstein
Commercial Outlook is Up as Economies Rebound
Crisis, What Crisis?
The Big Question
Funding Fundamentals
Is That a Lawsuit in Your Luggage?
AFRA Sets Ambitious Challenge for Aircraft Recycling Sector
Road to Recovery
Remembering Hafthor Hafsteinsson
License to Fly
Aircraft Appraisals
From the ISTAT Foundation
Aviation History
Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Jetrader - September/October 2010
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Cover2
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 4
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Contents
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 6
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Calendar/New
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 8
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Q&A: Dr. Alan Epstein
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 10
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 11
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Commercial Outlook is Up as Economies Rebound
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 13
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 14
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 15
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Crisis, What Crisis?
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 17
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 18
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 19
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 20
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - The Big Question
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 22
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 23
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Funding Fundamentals
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 25
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 26
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 27
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 28
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Is That a Lawsuit in Your Luggage?
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 30
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 31
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - AFRA Sets Ambitious Challenge for Aircraft Recycling Sector
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 33
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 34
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 35
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Road to Recovery
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 37
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 38
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Remembering Hafthor Hafsteinsson
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 40
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 41
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 42
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - License to Fly
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 44
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 46
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - From the ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Aviation History
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - 49
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Advertiser.com/Advertiser Index
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Cover3
Jetrader - September/October 2010 - Cover4
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