Jetrader - September/October 2011 - 35

ﬂuctuating fuel prices are important things, but in a 20-year view those are minor perturbations,” Tinseth added.

Steady Growth Foreseen
As the CMO reports, worldwide passenger air trafﬁc rose eight percent in 2010, after declining about two percent in 2009. The resilience of air travel is expected to sustain six percent growth in 2011 and keep the growth rate at or above the historical trend through the middle of the decade. Over the longer haul, Boeing expects passenger trafﬁc to grow at a 5.1 percent annual rate and the world’s aviation ﬂeet to double by 2030. The ﬂeet’s makeup will change signiﬁcantly over the next two decades with single-aisle jets making up 70 percent of the total and representing nearly half of its value. (See Chart 2, page 35). According to BCA marketing director and lead CMO forecaster, Mike Warner, the boost to single-aisle demand is the highlight in this year’s outlook. “We took the single-aisle market up to nearly $2 trillion over the forecast period. Frankly its incredible demand has been somewhat difﬁcult to predict. It’s hard to forecast the effect that a low-cost carrier has when it goes into an emerging market with the 737 and stimulates travel by offering new competitive service and low-cost offerings, but it’s the real driver in the market,” Warner said.

$4 Trillion Market – Boeing’s 2011 update of its annual Current Market Outlook for the
commercial aircraft industry forecasts that, by 2030, world demand will create a $4 trillion market for new airplanes. That ﬁgure is up 11 percent from its 2010 prediction. The industry’s growth is expected to drive 60 percent of that demand, while 40 percent will come from replacement of older, less efﬁcient airplanes. “Twenty three percent of this demand is already in the backlog of the manufacturers, so we’re well on the way to making this forecast a reality,” said Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Marketing vice president and chief CMO spokesperson. (Boeing graphic)

Twin-Aisle Trend
The new outlook foresees a resurgent demand for new, more efﬁcient twin-aisle aircraft such as the soon-to-be-delivered Boeing 787 Dreamliner, and later the Airbus A350. By 2030, 7,330 new twin-aisle deliveries are expected, representing more than one-ﬁfth of total deliveries and close to a half of total market value. About 40 percent of twin-aisle demand will come from the Asia Paciﬁc region, led by China and Southeast Asia. Worldwide, demand is seen for 820 new large airplanes (such as the 747-8 and the A380). They represent only two percent of total airplane deliveries but, in terms of market value, their worth is $270 billion, or seven percent of the total market.

Fleet to Double, Led by Single Aisles – By 2030, today’s ﬂeet of roughly 19,000 commercial
jets is expected to more than double to 39,530 airplanes, according to Boeing’s latest Current Market Outlook released in June. Single-aisle aircraft will comprise 70 percent of the ﬂeet; twinaisle models will be at 22 percent. Regional jets should have about a ﬁve percent share, and large aircraft like the 747-8 and A380 should have about three percent of the market. “Aircraft now being delivered or coming are more efﬁcient. They burn less fuel, ﬂy more hours a day, ﬂy farther and, unfortunately, maybe a little fuller. Overall they have better utilization,” said lead Boeing Commercial Airplanes CMO forecaster, Mike Warner. (Boeing graphic)

Regional Growth Helps Balance Demand
The strong growth being seen in China, India and other emerging markets

is expected to sustain more balanced airplane demand worldwide. China, which recently has seen double-digit GDP growth, is forecasted to grow at seven percent annually, while South Asia, which

includes India, should see GDP growth of 7.1 percent. Asia Paciﬁc is expected to be the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion by 2030. The region will account Jetrader 35

Jetrader - September/October 2011

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