Commercial Property News - November 2008 - (Page 31)

trend. As those now in their 20s and 30s build TOP 25 MARKETS for GROWTH-RELATED JOBS careers and raise famiTOP METRO CITIES Diversified lies, they are reversing (population of at least 200,000) Diversified 2008 Employment the pattern set by their 2008 Employment Core Based Statistical Area Population Index parents and grandparCore Based Statistical Area Population Index Heber, UT 21,562 143 ents and are streaming Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 1.9M 130 Jackson, WY-ID 27,816 131 Naples-Marco Island, FL 333,295 129 into the cities.That pheLas Vegas-Paradise, NV 1.9M 130 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 608,182 126 nomenon is reinvigoratNaples-Marco Island, FL 333,295 129 Provo-Orem, UT 495,921 123 ing urban cores and inKill Devil Hills, NC 34,521 127 Spokane, WA 453,400 119 creasing the imporKey West, FL 76,322 127 tance of urban settings Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 608,182 126 TOP METRO TOWNS for retail strategists, Hilton Head Island-Beaufort, SC 169,612 125 (population of 50,000 to 199,999) Diversified Truckee-Grass Valley, CA 101,146 125 Munoz explained. 2008 Employment Montrose, CO 39,620 124 The resurgence of Core Based Statistical Area Population Index Gardnerville Ranchos, NV 47,589 123 city centers also sugKey West, FL 76,322 127 Provo-Orem, UT 495,921 123 gests an intriguing way Hilton Head Island-Beaufort, SC 169,612 125 De Ridder, LA 35,784 122 to look at the data. Only Truckee-Grass Valley, CA 101,146 125 Prineville, OR 24,845 122 one index point sepaBozeman, MT 84,398 121 Bozeman, MT 84,398 121 rates Napa, Calif., from Carson City, NV 55,550 121 Carson City, NV 55,550 121 the San Diego area on Spokane, WA 453,400 119 the Affluence Index, Durango, CO 49,087 119 TOP MICRO TOWNS and both markets rank Pierre Part, LA 23,380 118 (population of 10,000 to 49,999) Diversified high in the top 20 overMyrtle Beach et al, SC 251,164 117 2008 Employment Grand Junction, CO 137,637 117 Core Based Statistical Area Population Index all. Yet, they differ Seaford, DE 186,080 117 Heber, UT 21,562 143 markedly in size: San Deltona-Daytona Beach et al, FL 509,804 117 Jackson, WY-ID 27,816 131 Diego and its environs Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL 177,077 116 Kill Devil Hills, NC 34,521 127 boast a population of Port St. Lucie, FL 412,821 116 Montrose, CO 39,620 124 more than 3 million, Gardnerville Ranchos, NV 47,589 123 The Nielsen-Claritas Diversified Employment Index averages the scores and Napa tops out at of eight employment categories that have demonstrated high correlation only 136,000. to growing markets. The national average equals 100. Identifying the most Sources: Nielsen Claritas Pop-Facts and Nielsen Claritas Business-Facts affluent locations also positioned to remain strong retail shire region at No. 11. Meanwhile, reinforces some existing impressions Core Based Statistical Area model. Yet some of the Nielsen Claritas markets for the long haul.In a telling the 18 million-resident region radiof those markets.The 3.3 million-perstudies’ affluence findings appear to statistic, California offers a dispro- ating from New York City ranks son Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue market is growing in stature among real contradict other indicators of mar- portionate share of the most affluent 14th in affluence among major metestate investors and their advisers, ket strength. California has been hit metropolitan areas that have popula- ropolitan areas. and it ranks as the 24th most affluent with some of the highest concentra- tions of at least 200,000.Seven of the JOBS & MORE JOBS area among cities and towns of all tions of home foreclosures, and the United States’ 10 most affluent large Retail analysts also favor employmarkets are located in the Golden sizes. Just above that metropolitan state’s government is also financially area is the New York City market, strapped. But the Affluence Index State, led by San Jose/Sunnyvale at ment statistics as an indicator of which actually extends as far as strongly suggests that the highly No. 1, Oxnard/Ventura/Thousand potential.While a strong job base will Pennsylvania according to the U.S. educated,high-income markets in its Oaks at No. 3 and San Francisco/ always serve as a bellwether for Office of Management and Budget’s major metropolitan areas are well Oakland at No. 5. Also representing retail,slicing the job market in a novel California are Sacramento/Arden at way will also help identify growth No. 13, San Luis Obispo/Paso Robles potential. Whether the market is Applied Demographics at No. 16 and Los Angeles/Long large, medium or small in size, a Although transaction volume has slowed to a crawl in retail as in other commerdiverse economic base also bodes Beach at No. 17. cial real estate sectors, the revival of the credit markets will eventually usher in the The East Coast answers well for long-term retail prospects. same investment opportunities that arise in every downturn. As Terry Munoz, vice president & practice leader of the retail, real estate and restaurant industries for According to Nielsen Claritas, California’s dominance of the index Nielsen Claritas, recently told an uneasy client: “Before you jump out the window, with a number of the usual sus- eight particular employment catethere are going to be opportunities.” gories tend to serve as growth pects.The Washington, D.C., region, Demographic indicators of affluence and economic diversity offer investors clues which extends to Maryland,Virginia indicators. Construction employfor good values. One such source of distressed properties will undoubtedly be priand West Virginia, takes second ment functions as the strongest, vately held firms that took on too much leverage during the go-go days and now place among large markets.A pair of with a 0.50 correlation to ecofind it impossible to refinance the debt. Once the credit markets finally loosen, those New England regions are high on nomic growth on a scale of 0 to 1. firms should be willing to sell their properties at lower prices and higher cap rates the list, as well—Connecticut’s Other categories include retail, than they would have fetched before the middle of 2007. To Munoz, this suggests 900,000-resident Bridgeport/Stam- finance and real estate, credit a strategy: Identify those overleveraged owners; study their portfolios and figure out ford/Norwalk area at No. 4 and agencies, furniture and home furwhich assets overlap with strongly affluent, economically diverse markets. the Boston/Cambridge/New Hamp- nishings, business services, engiwww.cpnonline.com • November 2008 • COMMERCIAL PROPERTY NEWS 31 BROAD BASE http://www.cpnonline.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Commercial Property News - November 2008

CPN - November 2008 Contents Starting Line Seniors Housing Data/Analysis Conferences Through the Fog CPN’s Top Cities for Investment & Corporate Relocation Finance International Sustainability CPN-Nielsen Claritas Special Report

Commercial Property News - November 2008

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