NMP - December 2016 - 31


n Survey: A Report of Findings

By Tom LaMalfa

about the subjects herein than any
real major surprises in the survey
findings. Nonetheless, there are
some of the latter buried in the
information. For me personally, the
almost 2:1 belief that the
Republicans would hold the Senate
post Nov. 8 was a surprise. More
important, the findings show where
consensus exists and where little
resides.
From my perch, the mood of this
year's convention was quite
positive. As suggested, the industry
is experiencing strong production
and nice returns for its effort and
ability to keep up with a fast pace.
This optimism among market
participants was my key takeaway
from this convention. Meanwhile,
Fannie Mae's announcement of its
Day 1 Certainty initiative had lenders
buzzing and stole the show. It
promises rep and warrant relief. The
convention's downer was the
announcement that MBA's leader,
CEO David Stevens, was suffering
from prostate cancer.
Thus prefaced, it's on to the
questions. Note that what follows is
not an analysis; rather, it's a straight
forward iteration of the collected
responses. No attempt is made to
provide any color on the issues or
topics included in the questionnaire.
None of the complexity of so many
of these issues, or of the various
nuances in topics or responses, is
dealt with in this report. These are
surface findings only.

Finally, readers are advised to
use the Scorecard to follow along
as a guide in reading the text as I
often group questions along the
same topic and thus omit a direct
link to each and every query.
Responses not adding to 29
acknowledge that not all the
executives could answer every
question or that the question wasn't
applicable.
Question 1 inquired if production
was up, down or flat this year
compared to 2015. Twenty-three of
the 29 executives surveyed report
production dollar volumes were up.
This compared to five who reported
flat year-over-year volume and only
one who indicated that volume
declined.
Questions 2 to 7 asked about
origination volume, specifically what
portions represented each of six
categories of production. Purchase
business accounted for an average
(unweighted by volume in this or
any of the questions) of 62.8
percent of the entire group's
origination activity. The range of
responses was wide: from 20-99
percent.
Agency, defined as Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac, conventional
volume accounted for 62.3 percent
of production, with a range of 40-95
percent; government-insured
volume, which ranged from two to
80 percent, averaged 29.7 percent
continued on page 33

31

n National Mortgage Professional Magazine n DECEMBER 2016

the GSEs is now 98 months old and
Congress has accomplished
precious little that addresses the
two insolvencies and prepares for
the future. It would be my hope-as
an objective, independent
researcher, analyst and observer of
the mortgage banking industry-
that policymakers in the Congress
and Administration and at the
Federal Reserve, the CFPB, the
FHFA, Ginnie Mae, HUD, FHA,
Fannie and Freddie think about,
discuss and evaluate the surveys'
findings and how they affect-to the
extent they do-borrowers, lenders,
transitional third parties and,
importantly, the health of the
mortgage market.
It need be said that given who is
being polled, it is understood that
the findings reflect only the
responses within the mortgage
banking industry, not a broader
cross-section of the U.S.
population. Not a random survey,
there is nothing in these results that
would necessarily apply outside the
mortgage finance industry. It also
deserves mention that survey results
are only valid as of a specific point
in time. Things can change,
sometimes quickly. That said, I
believe as a longstanding industry
observer, the findings well represent
the facts, expectations and thinking
of the full mortgage industry.
Indeed, most readers of this report
will find many, many more
confirmations to their own thinking

NationalMortgageProfessional.com

these surveys only once or twice,
others are included in every survey.
Data-driven questions like
Questions 1-10 and 38-40 are static
inclusions in the survey. Other
questions may be asked several
times and then abandoned, while
still others are asked but once.
Frequency depends on the
importance and sustainability of the
topic or issue.
Collected surveys provide a
dataset of queries and responses
over time. Analysis of the resulting
longitudinal data shows patterns
and trends, and may signal new
developments in the business and
industry. For example, the heavy
cost of regulation has become
increasingly apparent in the data, as
is concern over the risk
characteristics of FHA loans. This
particular survey evidences an
industry having undergone
substantial growth in production
volume this year, ostensibly the best
annual performance since the first
half of 2007. Despite the many
regulatory hurdles, it has been a
very strong year for mortgage
banking. It is the 50th month of a
nationwide sellers' market, with
significant effect on house prices, as
ICHR's data indicates.
Personally, I find the information
collected to be relevant, interesting,
insightful, informative, useful, and
instructive, especially so for
policymakers. It is not lost on
anyone that the conservatorship of


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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of NMP - December 2016

Contents
NMP - December 2016 - Cover1
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NMP - December 2016 - Cover4
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