NMP - November 2019 - 14

FLASH y NOVEMBER 2019 y NMP NEWSFLASH y NOVEMBER 2019 y NMP NEWSFLASH y NOVEM

Report: Calif. Fires Could
Cause $2T in Housing Value
Loss

NOVEMBER 2019 n National Mortgage Professional Magazine n

NationalMortgageProfessional.com

14
A new data analysis issued by
Redfin has determined four
California counties could lose a
cumulative total of roughly $2
trillion in housing value due to the
destruction from the ongoing
wildfires.
Redfin estimated Los Angeles
County could lose more than $1.2
trillion worth of homes. Three other
counties could also suffer major
losses: Orange County ($502.6
billion in total housing value), Santa
Clara County ($488.5 billion) and
San Diego County ($417.6 billion).
"I think this year is a turning
point," Lindsay Katz, a Redfin
agent in Los Angeles. "People who
live in Southern California and
people buying homes here are
getting fed up because not only
are the wildfires particularly bad
right now, but they've been
relentless over the last few years.
In the past, residents would get a
few years off between fires and
they would kind of forget about
them-but we haven't even
recovered from the Woolsey Fire
that hit Malibu last November, and
people are evacuating and losing
their homes again."
Last year, CoreLogic estimated
$19 billion in property damage due
to the combined devastation
brought by California's Camp and
Woolsey Fires.

MBA Forecasts $1.29T in
2020 Purchase Originations

The Mortgage Bankers Association
(MBA) is predicting a 1.6 percent
increase in purchase originations
during 2020 to $1.29 trillion and a
24.5 percent drop in refinance
originations to $599 billion over the
same period.
In a forecast released today
during its 2019 annual convention
in Austin, the MBA also predicted
that mortgage originations will total
around $2.06 trillion this year, the
highest since 2007's $2.31 trillion
mark, but will drop to around $1.89
trillion in 2020. In 2021, MBA
predicted purchase originations to
total around $1.33 trillion and
refinance originations to reach
$432 billion.
"Interest rates will, on average,
remain lower for longer given the
somewhat cloudy economic
outlook," said Mike Fratantoni,
MBA's chief economist and senior
vice president for research and
industry technology. "These lower
rates will in turn support both
purchase and refinance origination
volume in 2020. Lower-thanexpected mortgage rates gave the
refinance market a significant
boost this year, resulting in it being
the strongest year of volume since
2016. Given the capacity
constraints in the industry, some of
this refinance activity will spill into
the first half of next year."
The drop in refinancing should
occur in the second half of next
year, Fratantoni added, warning

that this could spur a reprise of the
margin pressures many mortgage
companies faced in 2018.
"The industry continues to be
challenged by elevated costs, and
as we saw in 2018, the mortgage
market is quite competitive.
Revenues fall when lenders are
chasing fewer loans," said
Fratantoni.
Fratantoni also expected the
Federal Reserve will cut rates one
more time before the end of this
year and then hold at that level
until the economy resumes growth
at a faster pace. He anticipated
that the 10-year Treasury rate
reach 1.9 percent next year, which
will cause the 30-year fixed-rate
mortgage rate to rise to around
four percent.

provides four-year scholarships
to the children of fallen and
severely disabled military
veterans to attend JROTC
military high schools across the
nation. At least one parent of
each recipient has been
deployed during the Global War
on Terror.
"The people at NewDay
recognize the enormous
sacrifices servicemembers,
Veterans and their families make,
and we are all incredibly
grateful," said Lt. General William
Caldwell (Ret.), President of
Georgia Military College.
More Than One-in-Four
Properties Are Equity Rich

NewDay USA Awards
Scholarships to Children of
Servicemembers

NewDay USA has awarded
scholarships to six children of
veterans and servicemembers who
have fought and died in the War on
Terror. The scholarships cover the
full four-year tuition at the Georgia
Military College Preparatory School
in Milledgeville, Ga.
"Our servicemembers and their
families have sacrificed so much to
protect this nation," said NewDay
USA Chairman Retired Rear
Admiral Thomas Lynch. "Being
able to help these families-
particularly on a solemn day like
September 11-is an honor for the
entire NewDay team."
The latest awards bring to more
than 60 the number of
scholarships that have been
awarded by NewDay through its
NewDay USA Foundation, which

During the third quarter of this
year, 14.4 million residential
properties-or 26.7 percent-were
considered equity rich. while 3.5
million-or one in 15-were
considered seriously underwater,
according to ATTOM Data
Solutions' latest U.S. Home
Equity & Underwater Report.
The top 10 states with the
highest share of equity rich
properties in the third quarter
were all in the Northeast and
West regions: California (40.8
percent), Hawaii (39.2 percent),
Vermont (39.0 percent), New
York (35.7 percent) and
Washington (35.6 percent).
Among the nation's largest metro
areas, the top shares of equity
rich properties were all in the
West: San Jose (62.7 percent),


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NMP - November 2019

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Contents
NMP - November 2019 - CT1
NMP - November 2019 - CT2
NMP - November 2019 - Cover1
NMP - November 2019 - Cover2
NMP - November 2019 - 1
NMP - November 2019 - Contents
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