Greenville Magazine - August 2008 - (Page 24) from the pros which is known with certainty, and underweight unknown future events. The value of a security, however, is the present value of future cash flows. Thus, we should concern ourselves more with the future than the present when investing. In difficult markets like the current one, this principle is easily forgotten. In an effort to lengthen your time horizon, I will spend the next few articles discussing a long-term factor behind business that is slow moving, dependable and predictable years in advance – demographics. While we each like to consider ourselves unique individuals, the reality is that we are largely predictable. Marketing executives, for example, know males between the ages of 21 and 35 drink more beer and watch more sports than the rest of the population. Do men stop drinking beer at 36 years of age? No, but their consumption slows as they get married, have more kids, spend more money on housing and begin watching their weight. The bond and stock markets are currently struggling with the aftermath of the housing market bust. Can demographics point us to a time when things might begin to get better? I believe so. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average first time home buyer is 32 and the average repeat buyer is 42. If one assumes other factors, such as deaths, are similar for each group, then we are able to estimate the likely number of buyers by looking at data on births from 32 and 42 years ago. As one can see in the table on the previous page, there was a major decline, -15.21 percent in the number of combined births 42 and 32 years ago, between 2003 and 2008. We now know this was also the period when financial institutions made the majority of their bad loans. Fortunately, the data suggests 2008 is the trough year, before a slow recovery toward 2012. The data suggest that long term investors will find 2008 a great year for making investments, as the market is taking the current housing market difficulties and projecting them into a future that demographics suggest will look much different than those expectations. wellNess with Bon Secours St. Francis Health By Bradley S. Howard, M.D., Medical Director of emergency Medicine watcH FoR Heat illNess eat exhaustion and heatstroke are medical emergencies. During these hot summer months, whether it’s playing tennis, working in the yard or even taking your usual jog or power walk – extreme physical exertion could put you or your loved ones at risk for heat exhaustion or the more serious heatstroke. Older adults, young children and individuals who are extremely overweight are at highest risk. Also, those using antihistamines or taking certain medications for high blood pressure or depression should be particularly cautious with their activity levels in hot, humid conditions. With heatstroke, the normal “cooling system” of our body stops functioning. At high temperatures, our body normally cools itself through evaporation of sweat. If a person becomes severely dehydrated (many times because of inadequate replacement of fluids) this causes disturbances in the circulation which can result in a body reaction similar to mild form of shock. Signs and symptoms of heatstroke may be: rapid heartbeat; profuse sweating; muscle cramps or pains; moderate to severe breathing difficulty; confusion, severe restlessness; anxiety, feeling dizzy or lightheaded; and/or headache. If you suspect heatstroke, immediately: move the person out of sun into shady or air-conditioned space; dial 911 – get emergency medical assistance; cool the person’s body by sponging or spraying cool – not cold – water; and fan the person to lower body temperature. DO NOT GIVE the person aspirin or acetaminophen to reduce high body temperature. These medications can cause problems due to the body’s reaction to heatstroke. Visit the St. Francis Web site, www. stfrancishealth.org, for valuable information to keep your family healthy. H 24 Greenville MaGazine | aUGUST 2008 http://www.greenvilleobgyn.com http://www.stfrancishealth.org http://www.stfrancishealth.org http://www.greenvilleobgyn.com
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