The Pellucid Perspective - August 2011 - (Page 13)

WEATHER Whither the weather? Forecaster’s “mood” may affect your tee sheet By Harvey Silverman “I ’ve looked at clouds from both sides now.” At the risk of losing our man card by quoting a lyric from a Joni Mitchell song, it does speak to the seemingly contradictory nature of how our weather forecasts are delivered through the numerous media outlets. Certainly, it seems weather forecasters around the country do this (look at clouds from both sides), with those looking at one side proclaiming “partly sunny”, and those gazing at the other side taking the more dour view of “partly cloudy.” Who’s right, why do they use different language, and what can you do about how it affects your business? Pellucid provides weather impact data for a growing number of clients who realize that having accurate weather data is essential in evaluating course and financial performance. Many times we have been asked whether we can factor “bad forecasts” and their effect on rounds played into the analysis. The answer to that, unfortunately, is no. But it made us think about why forecasters in the same city too often use contradictory language that can dramatically affect a golfer’s decision to play golf. It is not measureable, but there is growing anecdotal evidence that golfers today are far less apt to don a Gortex rainsuit and play in inclement weather than 25 years ago. And, the anecdotal evidence also points to golfers deciding not to play based solely on a forecast that may turn out to be wrong, or that was expressed with terms and icons that portrayed more negativity than reality. So, to Google we go with the search term, “U.S. weather forecast terminology.” Eureka! We hit the mother lode. One can spend hours, if not days, digging through the www.weather.gov site, home to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and its National Weather Service. Click on “Organization” and you’ll see the depth and breadth of our government’s weather science capabilities, with acronyms from AAWU to WC/ ATWC. We’re not sure if the size and scope of the NOAA qualifies under the right-wing “government is too big” mantra, and the intent of this article is not to research and comment on the size of NOAA’s budget. Most important to note is that weather is a very big business in this country, and that weather is important to business in this country. Especially golf. We found another informative question and answer site provided by USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm. Here we found information pertinent to “looking at clouds from both sides.” For instance, “what does a 30% chance of rain mean?” The answer is a bit complex: The National Weather Service says, “The probability of precipitation is the likelihood of measurable precipitation (0.01 inches or greater) for a specified forecast time period, and occurring at any point for which the forecast is valid.” A reasonable English translation of this bit of government speak is: The probability gives the odds of any one place in the area covered by the forecast getting wet, whether it’s from rain or snow. The 0.01 inches or greater comes from the fact that any less rain or water from melted snow or ice can’t be measured. If the bottom of the rain gauge is wet, but the water isn’t deep enough to measure, that’s called a “trace’ and really doesn’t count. A forecaster assigns a precipitation probability that shows his or her confidence in the forecast, how much of the forecast area is likely to have precipitation, and low long the precipitation is expected to last. The important point is that the odds are for the rain or snow to fall on any place in the area covered by the forecast. This means, that the probability could be low – say 30% – yet you have hard rain for a few hours. In this case, the forecast isn’t wrong, you’re just one of the unlucky people who happened to be in the small part of the region that got wet that day. Or, if your lawn and garden needed the rain, you were one of the lucky ones. And, your friend a couple of miles away who needs the rain can’t complain about the forecast not working out. Rain did fall on at least one place in the area. Here’s the system the National Weather Service uses to relate probabilities to words describing the odds of an “isolated thunderstorm:” • 10% probability: Slight chance, isolated or none. • 20% probability: Slight chance, isolated • 30-50% probability: Chance,scattered • 60-70% probability:Likely, numerous If the probability is 80% or above the forecast will be categorical, such as “Rain this afternoon.” Last, here are the terms used to forecast sky conditions: • Cloudy: 90-100% • Mostly cloudy: 70-80% • Partly cloudy or Partly sunny: 30-60% • Mostly clear or Mostly sunny:10-30% • Clear or sunny: 0-10% And now, here’s the kicker, taken directly from this USA Today site: Meteorologists like to say that the difference between “partly cloudy” and “partly sunny” is the forecaster’s mood. They mean the same as the table above shows. Aha! So it is not the weather forecast per se that is scaring people away from your first tee, it is how the local meteorologist conveys this according to his or her mood. Hence, a moody weather person on Channel 3 can cost you money. Isn’t that special? So here are a couple ideas. First, never place the weather on your website. There are plenty of other places golfers can get the local conditions and forecast. If you’ve worked hard to get golfers to come to your website, why do you want to be the one who scares them away? Second, alone or with a group of local courses, monitor your local weather personalities and find the one who is seemingly less moody, who uses more glass half full terminology. Then approach that media outlet and offer to put links to it on your website(s), at no charge as long as they continue to use favorable weather language. Will this help your business? Like the weather, you just never n know. The Pellucid PersPecTive www.PellucidcorP.com 13 http://www.weather.gov http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm http://WWW.PELLUCIDCORP.COM

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2011

The Pellucid Perspective - August 2011
Contents
Why cost cutting doesn’t yield long-term prosperity
Get Golf Ready showing some traction
Danger, Will Robinson!
Golf holding up but heartland hammered by weather
U.S. golf course development dead, or just sleeping?
Whither the weather
Miami/Ft Lauderdale, FL Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA)
Comings & goings
A few changes of note in August’s dog days

The Pellucid Perspective - August 2011