The Pellucid Perspective - January 2015 - (Page 17)

MARKET FOCUS Operators find hearts in San Francisco San Francisco-Oakland Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) F or our new readers, in this section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets (based on a composite score of the golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand). Within that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the #4 healthiest market, the San Francisco-Oakland Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA). Outside being the city made famous by Tony Bennett, being at the forefront of liberal politics and a vanguard of the gay community, those of us in the golf industry know San Francisco as a market of limited space for golf and, as a result, very constrained supply growth. It's also the place where the battle to protect affordable public golf has raged vs. environmentalists trying to protect habitats of various unique animal species. For golfers it's a temperate but changing climate that hosts golf most of the year and also offers some of the most beautiful layouts in the country. You'd think one could make money as a golf operation in this combination of characteristics, wouldn't you? By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), San Francisco ranks 19th among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just under 3.5M rounds (that facility-reported tally counts both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that San Francisco is home to a relatively healthy local golfer base of roughly 391K golfers (this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourism crowd). That golfer base is served by a relatively scant supply amount of 86 18-hole equivalent (EHE) facilities, producing an average ratio of nearly 5K local resident golfers per EHE. That's well above the national average, which isn't surprising given that we have fairly high population density crammed into the limited land area while there's no way to "compress" golf proportionately to the space available. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments shows a strong primary bias to Private at 39% of total holes compared to the national average of 27%. Also of interest is a healthy presence of Public-Price to somewhat counterbalance that at 20% of supply vs. the national average of 16%. The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public Premium) vs. Value golf (Public Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 55%/45% vs. the national average of 50%/50%, meaning that the market shows a meaningful skew to Value-added (this is driven by the high incidence of Private vs. the national average). Within Public-Regulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 27%/36%/36% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%, which highlights the somewhat paradoxical skew toward Price golf in one of the highest-priced markets for cost-of-living and consumer goods www.PellucidCorp.com Private PublicPremium PublicValue PublicPrice Learning & Practice Future Facility Tot US Index vs. US 390.5 23,400 82 14,672 4,762 1,595 299 San Francisco, CA CBSA Golfer Base - Est. # of Golfers (Ks) - # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities - Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. Supply Mix - Private - Pub-Prem - Pub-Val - Pub-Price - Learn & Prac 39% 15% 20% 20% 7% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 144 65 71 125 117 9% 1% 9% -12% 100 N/A -8% -21% N/A 37.4 33.8 111 46% 56% $2,117.7 $1,155 82 183 Supply/Demand Balance - '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline - '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline - '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* - Avg Ann Rds Velocity (ks per 18-hole Equiv.) Rounds & GF Revenue Health - % Utilization Rate - Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) - Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) $26 $19 137 * Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply + Inverse index, lower is better Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) The Pellucid PersPecTive 17 http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - January 2015

TOC
The FootGolf faceoff
What do GoDaddy.com and golf have in common? Now, Bob Parsons
Hack Golf initiative dormant, but not dead, TaylorMade says
Industry shows registering exhibitor upticks
State of the Industry preview: It’s not all bad news
Andrew Wood: Legendary indeed
December golf weather impact: Santa Claus came to town
Operators find hearts in San Francisco
Pebble Beach Resort adds TaylorMade as brand partner
WHIP it good?

The Pellucid Perspective - January 2015

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