The Pellucid Perspective - July 2015 - (Page 15)

Potential for Nirvana, but grungy performance slowing Seattle operators Seattle, WA Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA) I n this monthly section we profile one of the Top 25 US Golf Markets (based on a Pellucid composite score of the golfer base, the supply level and rounds demand). Within that Top 25 universe, we then rank them based on relative health using a Pellucid weighted scoring system on 8 variables ranging from Population Growth to Estimated Profitability-per-Available Round. In this issue, we'll profile the 11th healthiest market, the Seattle WA Metro Core Business Statistical Area (CBSA). We shift our attention this month to the great Northwest, a region not historically renowned for golf (due in part to Mother Nature's proclivity to rain which isn't generally conducive to our sport) but which recently got a "major" boost from hosting the US Open for the first time in history, we believe. Lesser known is the fact that the maritime climate influence provides for an extended season in spite of the northern latitude, which sports golffriendly temperatures for a season length of nearly 11 months based on Pellucid's Golf Playable Hours calculations. The intersection of golfers, supply, weather and price places Seattle between the better-known golf powerhouse markets of Dallas and New York City in our annual ranking of size and health, making it a "sleeper" geography in our industry. By rounds demand (one of our 3 selection criteria for initial inclusion in the Top 25 list), Seattle ranks 23rd among US markets with facility-reported annual demand of just over 3M rounds. (That facility-reported tally counts both local and tourist play). Looking at the golf consumer base, we see that Seattle is home to a moderate-sized local golfer base of roughly 297K golfers (16th ranking, remember this is only local, resident population, doesn't count the tourism crowd). That golfer base is served by a relatively thin supply amount of only 84 18-hole equivalents (EHE), producing a healthy ratio of roughly 3.6K local resident golfers per EHE, over twice the national average. The supply mix vs. the national distribution across Pellucid's five access/value/usage segments skews significantly to PublicValue at 35% of total holes compared to the national average of 28%, which means Seattle didn't chase the premium, pristine and penal siren song of the late 1990s. The Private vs. Public access balance is 26%/74%, very close to the national average of 27%/73%. The balance of Value-added golf supply (Private & Public-Premium) vs. Value golf (Public-Value, Price and Learning & Practice) is 44%/56%, which skews to the Value classifiwww.PellucidCorp.com Private PublicPremium PublicValue PublicPrice Golfer Base - Est. # of Golfers (Ks) - # of 18 Hole Equivalent Facilities - Golfers per 18-Hole Equiv. Learning & Practice Tot US Index vs. US 296.8 22,900 84 14,672 3,554 1,561 228 Seattle, WA CBSA Supply Mix - Private - Pub-Prem - Pub-Val - Pub-Price - Learn & Prac 26% 18% 35% 14% 7% 27% 23% 28% 16% 6% 98 78 124 90 110 5% -8% 9% -12% 57 67 -13% -21% 63 30.8 33.8 91 42% 56% $1,191.6 $1,155 $16 $19 75 103 84 Supply/Demand Balance - '00-'13 Cume Supply Growth/Decline - '00-'13 Cume Rds Demand Growth/ Decline - '00-'13 Cume Mkt Supply Dilution (-)/Absorption (+) Level* - Avg Ann Rds Velocity (Ks per 18-hole vs. ks) Rounds & GF Revenue Health - % Utilization Rate - Avg. Ann. Rev. per Public Regulation EHE ($Ks) - Revenue per Available Round (RevpAR) Future Facility * Period % Chng in Rds vs. Period % Chng in Supply + Inverse index, lower is better Above average level vs. US (Index >105) Average level vs. US (Index 95-104) Below average level vs. US (Index <95) cation vs. the 50%/50% national distribution. Within PublicRegulation golf, the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 27%/52%/21% vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%, which reflects a relatively large "bubble" in the midprice range The Pellucid PersPecTive 15 http://www.PellucidcorP.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - July 2015

TOC
2015 rounds up but revenue trailing
Golf course threatened by latest in series of reverse discrimination complaints
NCGOA’s no-go decision on tee time sales wise, but more controls needed
Golf gets a seat at the multi-billion dollar gift card table
Millennials seek answers to what golf offers to them
June golf weather impact: A second core month of “neutral”
Potential for Nirvana, but grungy performance slowing Seattle operators
Trumped?

The Pellucid Perspective - July 2015