The Pellucid Perspective - June 2017 - 14

INDUSTRY
SCORECARD

months" where there wasn't any significant weather making national headlines anywhere so people's perception of the month is
generally "same old same old." Tracking the weather at market
level though and aggregating those results (and also weighting
by rounds contribution) shows us that months without major weather news can still have major impact as the 5% drop in
Available Rounds will be felt when May's Played Rounds results
are published. It would have been better if the April and May
weather pictures were reversed given the volume contributions
for the two months, but we have to play the hand we're dealt. The
regions showing decline were a combination of the Great Lakes

Rounds by Facility Type Apr 2017
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

2.0% ___________________________________________
0.9%
1.0% ___________________________________________
0.6%

0.0% ___________________________________________
-1.0% ___________________________________________
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-2.1%

-3.0% ___________________________________________
-2.9%
-3.0%
___________________________________________
-4.0%
-4.1%

-5.0% ___________________________________________

Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '16 value (52%). For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
of rounds following weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars above show that April posted a Utilization rate of ~57% (wow!) which was a 5 point increase vs. the YE
'16 value. (One must consider that we see swings of this magnitude in the shoulder seasons as weather hovers around playable/
unplayable parameters vs. the core summer season). In other
words, the month's 2% decline in Played Rounds vs. the 8% gain
in Available Rounds for the month. The second set of bars show
the Year-to-Date (YtD) results with Utilization measuring 48%
or a 4 point deficit vs. the benchmark. That one hurt in that we
were anticipating a gain in rounds demand for the month based
on recent patterns and the April results. Back to the drawing
board....

14 The Pellucid PersPecTive

and Ohio Valley as well as Texas and the Gulf Coast. On the
positive side, the SE Coast area bucked the tide and continues to
have a good weather year through May. On the Utilization side, I
have to eat my words from last month's press release where I predicted positive rounds results for April based on the +8% weather
results. It just proves that, while the weather and rounds correlation has been relatively strong over the recent past, good weather
doesn't guarantee increased rounds, lest our owner/operators forget that they too have a real and constant responsibility to either
accelerate favorability or try and offset unfavorability. (We'll see
n
how they did at that in the May rounds results)."

n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for the current month, rounds were off, posting a 2% decrease vs. Year Ago (YA) driven by a 3% decline in
the Public sector. For the Year-to-Date (YtD) period, the April
decline maintained the previous deficit, which continues to hold
at -4% now through 4 months of play. The YtD decline is exclusively found in the Public sector which is off 4% while the
Private sector indicates that they've been largely unaffected by the
weather and factors contributing to the Public decline. (Doesn't
make sense mathematically at the macro level but does continue a
pattern we saw in the PerformanceTrack era)). As we'll see below
in Utilization, the 2nd element of our May double-whammy is
the fact that rounds demand did not rise in April in response to
previously-reported favorable weather (oops...).

Utilization & Point Change Apr 2017
n %Utilization
Curr. Month

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '16
YtD

60.0% ______________________________________

0.0

-1.0
46.6%
47.9%
50.0% ______________________________________
40.0% ______________________________________ -2.0
30.0% ______________________________________ -3.0
-4.0
20.0% ______________________________________
-3.7
10.0% ______________________________________ -5.0
-5.0

0.0% ______________________________________ -6.0
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

June 2017

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