The Pellucid Perspective - October 2017 - 15

and Learning & Practice) is 50%/50% which is dead on the
50%/50% national distribution. Within Public-Regulation golf,
the distribution between Premium/Value/Price is 29%/46%/25%
vs. the national picture of 34%/42%/24%, which shows that the
Public-access regulation supply skew is towards the affordable
golf segments vs. the US benchmark (71% is Value/Price vs. 66%
nationally). Remember that in this particular analysis Pellucid
allows the definitions of Premium/Value/Price to "float" across
each of the markets driven by the local market price spectrum
so the absolute price of golf isn't necessarily revealed by a balanced distribution (i.e. Value golf could still be expensive in the
absolute).
During the "go-go" years of supply
development (1990-2000), the Boston
CBSA lagged the "build a course a day"
craze, increasing supply at an annual
rate of <2% (compared to the (unreasonable) US average of >2%). Working to slightly offset this was average
annual population growth (~1% annually during that period). Using our pre2000 calculation for supply dilution/absorption (supply change vs. population
change) we estimate that the market
was at ~10% dilution at the turn of the
century vs. the 1990 benchmark (similar to the US average of 11% overhang).
Since 2000, the annual rate of supply
growth has throttled back only slightly
while the population growth rate has
flattened slightly as well. A better
available metric however for supply
dilution/absorption in the post-2000
period (because we have semi-accurate
facility-reported rounds figures at state
and market level) is comparing supply growth to the changes in rounds
demand. Since 2000, the market has
experienced declining annual rounds
results (on par with the national average of -1% annually) so we're actually
showing increased supply dilution during the '00-'13 period. Combining the
1990-2000 decade dilution rate (-10%)
and the 2000-2013 period results
(-28%), the average facility in the market is roughly 38% worse off than they
were in the 1990 benchmark (a slightly
darker picture than the national rate
of -33% supply dilution for that same
'90-'13 period). Since they continue to
show a proclivity to build in the Boston
market (i.e. expansion rate >1% annually), the answer for the Boston market
is to find a way to grow rounds demand
in excess of 1% annually.
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The average facility has throughput of roughly 29K rds/yr,
lower than the national average before factoring in climate and
daylight influences. The more accurate measure is the market's
54% Utilization Rate which is within striking distance of the
Top 25 US Golf Markets' average (56%). This means that, after factoring in the handicap of a less-than-12-month season,
the market's average golf "factory" runs at similar throughput vs.
its Top 25 US Golf Markets peer group. On the annual Golf
Fees Revenue productivity side, the market generates just under
$1.4M per public regulation-length EHE which is well above
the Top 25 Markets average. After factoring that for weather in-

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