The Pellucid Perspective - May 2018 - 12

INDUSTRY
SCORECARD

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
YtD
0% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-9% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-17% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-17% -17%
-20%

-23%
-26% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-26%

-34% ________________________________________________________________________________________________
-33%
Source: Golf Datatech

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours) so our
readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional figures, the 61 markets figures
or specific to your individual facility, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the
Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website by clicking the
"Reports" button below.
The above chart shows us that April weather continued its ugly performance, registering the 4th consecutive double-digit
decline in Golf Playable Hours vs. the same month '17 results. If you flip back to the Weather Impact section, you'll see that a
primary contributor, now that all 45 regions are in-season by Pellucid's definition, is that the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and
Northeast all have had one of their tougher weather starts compared to '17 (as well as compared to the 10-year Norm). Pellucid
report subscribers have already seen the underlying figures for the 45 weather-based regions and the 61 major metro markets as
well as knowing what the April "call" for the end of the year is for their planning purposes. If you want to be similarly "in-theknow," subscribe by clicking the "Cogniligic Weather Impact Analysis" button below.
Reports

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthly Utilization Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD
22 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
21

17 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
11 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9
8

5
6 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure by now you all know is the resultant of
Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End figure
(51%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
March continues to demonstrate the importance and need for Utilization as the cardinal performance metric of demand vs.
played rounds. For the 3rd consecutive month, although we experienced a meaningful decline in rounds, Utilization actually
registered a healthy gain due to the fact that the weather decline (-17%) significantly exceeded our rounds loss (-4%), resulting in
higher Utilization. In other words, we've now "beaten the weather" for the initial three months of the year so the sky is not falling
(literally) as it relates to national rounds production. Until Utilization starts registering declines, we stay the course on current
programs and make whatever financial adjustments are required. (Utilization tells us that we're at the mercy of Mother Nature but,
regardless, there's not the money coming into the till we expected so some short-term spending decisions may need to be made).
There's still lots of golf to be played this season and we know, based on the year-end forecast, that we won't be down 20% in Available Rounds but history has also shown us that making up early season "lost rounds" opportunities is challenging.

12 The Pellucid PersPecTive

May 2018
https://www.pellucidcorp.com/services/cognilogic-weather-impact https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - May 2018
