The Pellucid Perspective - June 2018 - 10

INDUSTRY
SCORECARD

mosaic is also available to Pellucid Publications members and
Geographic Weather Impact report subscribers.
Jim Koppenhaver comments, "After last month's depressing
journey through the regional/markets numbers, this month
was the opposite as the vast majority of our 45 regions and 75
markets posted Golf Playable Hours (GPH) gains. As our
geographical weather impact subscribers can see on the map
provided to them, May is like a Christmas tree with the current
months predominately in green and the Year-to-Date figures
predominately red. (You'll also be able to see that in the June
Perspective later this month). We're seeing the continuance of
the pattern at the regional level of everyone east of the Rockies
showing GPH deficits while the pockets of resistance (i.e. positive and flat results) are all west of the mountain range. Look-

Rounds by Facility Type Apr 2018
All Fac.
Types

Public
Access

Private

0.0% ___________________________________________
-2.0% ___________________________________________
-4.0% ___________________________________________
-6.0% ___________________________________________
-8.0% ___________________________________________
-7.9%
-8.9%
-9.1%
-10.0% ___________________________________________
-10.8%
-12.0% ___________________________________________
___________________________________________
-14.0% -13.5%
-14.2%
-16.0% ___________________________________________
Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance

For reference, Utilization and Point Change vs. Year Ago (YA)
tracks rounds demand after factoring for weather. The comparative benchmark is the Year End (YE) '17 value of 51%. For
those not familiar with Pellucid's Weather Impact tracking, the
underlying concept is relatively simple. In a theoretical world
where rounds follow weather, a 5% increase in Available Rounds
would produce a 5% gain in Played Rounds. By comparing
Played Rounds to Available Rounds, we can determine the Utilization of the average facility and how it's changing during the
year vs. the benchmark.
The first set of bars above show that April posted a Utilization
rate of ~60%, which was 9 points better than the YE '17 value
(continuing our "rounds down but not as much as weather" storyline). The second set of bars show the Year-to-Date (YtD)
results which are similar, posting a 61% Utilization rate, up 9
points. For the fourth consecutive month, Pellucid delivers better news than the industry veterans, associations and pundits;
the rounds decline was in fact driven by weather but, as an industry, we didn't follow the weather down in equal magnitude
but managed to hold onto more rounds than what Mother Nature bestowed upon us. This is why we developed Weather Impact tracking; it produces different, more accurate answers than
rounds alone or attributing all of our rounds joy and pain to
simply weather (or "superior operations" when results are favorable, ha, ha).

10 The Pellucid PersPecTive

ing at April YtD results for Utilization at the 61 markets level,
the silver lining to this cloud remains that Played Rounds aren't
fully reflecting the magnitude of unfavorable weather across the
majority of markets. This is illustrated in the favorable breadth
of Utilization gainers which remains 5:1 (40 markets showing
Utilization gains against 8 markets showing losses). Among
Pellucid's Top 25 US Golf Markets for the YtD period, 17 are
now showing Utilization gains with Detroit (#21) continuing
to lead the way by posting a 17% decline in Played Rounds but
against an 59% decline in Available Rounds (wow!?). Again,
if you want to know the Top 25 Golf Markets which posted
Utilization gains and how much, just go to our website and get
on the Monthly Weather Impact subscription or sign up for
Cognilogic (facility-level access via the web)." Click here. n
n Curr Month
n Curr YtD

Looking at demand for April, rounds were down 14% vs. Year
Ago (YA), not surprising given our previous report of Golf Playable Hours being down >20% for the month. April's decline was
steeper in the Public sector but Private didn't fare much better.
For the Year-to-Date (YtD) period, it's a similar storyline of All
Facility rounds down 9% driven by a slightly higher decline in
the Public vs. Private sector. Pre-Pellucid, the stock industry answer would have been "It's the weather," but was it? Let's look at
Utilization.

Utilization & Point Change Apr 2018
n %Utilization

n Pt. Chng vs. FY '17

Curr. Month

YtD

70.0% ______________________________________60.9%

60.2%

9.4

9.3

60.0% ______________________________________-

9.2

50.0% ______________________________________
______________________________________
40.0%

9.0

30.0% ______________________________________
8.6

8.8

20.0% ______________________________________

8.6

10.0% ______________________________________-

8.4

0.0% ______________________________________-

8.2

Source: GDT/NGCOA/NGF alliance; Pellucid

June 2018

https://www.pellucidcorp.com/reports

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - June 2018