The Pellucid Perspective - June 2018 - 11

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
YtD
________________________________________________________________________________________________
6%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-13%
-17% -17%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-26%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-33%

Source: Golf Datatech

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours) so our
readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional figures, the 61 markets figures
or specific to your individual facility, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the
Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website by clicking the
"Reports" button below.
The above chart shows us that May weather (finally) smiled upon us registering our first month of positive "comps" for the year.
If you flip back to the Weather Impact section, you'll see that the vast majority of regions were positive weather beneficiaries (all
the green arrows in the leftmost position) producing a "Christmas tree" graphic of green for the month and red for YtD. Pellucid
report subscribers received last week the underlying figures for the 45 weather-based regions and the 61 major metro markets as
well as the May "call" for the end of the year for their planning purposes. If you want to be similarly "in-the-know," subscribe by
clicking the "Cogniligic Weather Impact Analysis" button below.
Reports

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthly Utilization Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD
25.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
21.3

20.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
15.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
8.6
10.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
9.3
8.0
5.0
5.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________

- ________________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: Golf Datatech

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure by now you all know is the resultant of
Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End figure
(51%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
April continues to demonstrate the importance and need for Utilization as the cardinal performance metric of demand vs.
played rounds. For the 4th consecutive month, in the face of significant round demand declines, Utilization actually registered
a healthy gain due to the fact that the weather decline (-14%) significantly exceeded our rounds loss (-26%) resulting in higher
Utilization. In other words, we've now "beaten the weather" for the initial four months of the year so the sky is not falling (literally) as it relates to national rounds production and our 2018 pricing and programs. Until Utilization starts registering declines,
we stay on the current course and make whatever financial adjustments are required (Utilization tells us that we're at the mercy of
Mother Nature but, regardless, there's not the money coming into the till we expected so some short-term spending decisions may
need to be made). There's still lots of golf to be played this season and we know, based on the year-end forecast, that we won't be
down 20% in Available Rounds come December. That said, history has also shown us that making up early season "lost rounds"
with catch-up play is challenging.
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The Pellucid PersPecTive

11
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - June 2018
