The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018 - 13

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthy % Chng vs. Year Ago
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%

Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec YtD
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
________________________________________________________________________________________________
6%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
1%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
0%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-5%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-7%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-17% -17%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-20%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-26%
________________________________________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________________________________
-33%

Source: Golf Datatech

In the above, we track the monthly and quarterly timeseries view of weather impact (measured by Golf Playable Hours or GPH) so
our readers can see how the year is playing out at the national level. Again, if you want the 45 regional figures, the 61 markets figures
or specific to your individual facility, you can get those by subscribing either to the Pellucid Publications Membership program, the
Geographical Weather Impact reports or Cognilogic (individual facility down to daily level) at the Pellucid website by clicking the
"Reports" button below.
The above chart shows us that July weather statistically mirrored last year's weather at the national level (off 0.1% for those
of you counting decimals). If you flip back to the Weather Impact section and map, you'll see that this was a mix of positive and
negative results by region vs. a large number of regions posting neutral results (i.e. we're not seeing a number of black arrows in the
left position representing current month). Pellucid report subscribers received last week the underlying figures for the 45 weatherbased regions and the 61 major metro markets as well as the July "call" for the end of the year for their planning purposes. If you
want to be similarly "in-the-know," subscribe by clicking the "Cogniligic Weather Impact Analysis" button below.
Reports

Cognilogic Weather Impact Analysis

Golf Playable Hours 2018 Monthly Utilization Point Chng vs. Prior Full Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
YtD
25.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
21.3

20.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
15.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
8.6
10.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
8.0
5.0
5.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
3.2

- ________________________________________________________________________________________________
(0.3)

(1.0)

Source: Golf Datatech

The above chart represents a timeseries by month of Utilization change which we're sure that by now you all know is the resultant
of Played Rounds (demand) divided by Available Rounds (capacity). We compare each month back to the static prior Year End
figure (52%) to determine if we improved or lost utilization in the current month.
June continues to demonstrate the importance and need for Utilization as the cardinal performance metric of demand vs. played
rounds. With the Golf Datatech rounds figures off slightly for the month, the previously-reported GPH results were marginally positive producing a slight drop in Utilization (we're not going to equivocate over a 1 point swing). The YE GPH forecast
remained relatively unchanged at the national level so, while we're not going to get back all of the rounds losses through the first
5 months, at least the year-end picture of what Mother Nature will give us isn't eroding and our clients have visibility into the fact
that we won't be down by double-digits in weather come 12/31. For many markets and their component facilities, you'll need that
type information to make a call relatively soon regarding whether to "double-down" on being able to steal share in the back half of
the year or trimming budgets to align with likely (shallower) demand declines and associated revenue shortfalls for this calendar
year.
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The Pellucid PersPecTive

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Pellucid Perspective - August 2018
