IEEE Electrification Magazine - March 2017 - 80

TEchNOLOGY LEaDErS

Electric Vehicles
and the Magic 8 Ball
By Peter Savagian

T IS A SIMPLE YES OR NO
question that has stood for
more than 25 years. Billions have been wagered on one side
or the other, and the outcome is still
uncertain: "will (battery) electric
vehicles (EVs) grow beyond the
niche and become mainstream?" In
a simpler era, long ago, I would seek
sage advice to difficult questions
from a prized toy, the Magic 8 Ball.
You held the giant 6-in plastic
billiard ball in your hands, asked it a
yes or no question, concentrated very
hard, and then turned the ball over.
Then slowly the answer would
appear-sometimes definitively, but
at other times not so clearly. Often it
was proved correct. Maybe we should
consult with the Magic 8 Ball to guide
us now (Figure 1). But in addition, I
would like to offer this article on the
history, status, and outlook of EVs and
EV technologies.

I

My Reply
Is
No

Figure 1. Era 1 Magic 8 Ball reply. (Image
courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)

There have been positive developments in every technical area, but
most notably in durable, compact,
and cost-effective energy storage. The
battery improvements have marked
the greatest changes over the years
and helped to define the eras.

Era 1: 1990-2006
At the 1990 Los Angeles Auto Show,
General Motors (GM) announced
that it would build a production version of a functional electric concept
car, called the Impact (Figure 2). The
Impact was the commissioned work
(continued on page 74)

The Three modern Eras of EVs
There have been perhaps three periods of industry exuberance in the
modern era, since about 1990. We are
presently in the third era. Each of the
first two eras have resulted in a limited activity and only niche volumes,
despite the studied hopes by some
companies, regulators, and enthusiasts for more wide-ranging success.

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MELE.2016.2645442
Date of publication: 7 March 2017

80

IE E E E l e c t r i f i c ati o n M agaz ine / march 2017

Figure 2. A GM Impact functional concept car. (Photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.)



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