IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2017 - 4

VIEWPOINT

The Electrification
of the Marine Industry
By Jan Emblemsvåg

LL T E C H N O LOGICAL
changes follow certain predictable patterns typically
referred to as Kondratiev (often spelled
as "Kondratieff") waves or cycles,
named after the Russian economist
Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev
(1892-1938). It is generally acknowledged that these cycles typically last
approximately 50 years for the world
economy at large. More accurate

A

Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MELE.2017.2718821
Date of publication: 5 September 2017

timing, however, is not always easy to
predict, and there is also a question
regarding if it is the technological
changes that cause the Kondratieff
cycles or the economy that drives
technological changes. Although there
is no universally accepted precise
description of these waves and how
they work, most tend to agree that it
is technology that drive these cycles. It
was van Gelderen and Schumpeter
that first saw technological change in
a wide sense as a driver of these
waves (Figure 1).

Second
Kondratieff
1830-1880
Railway, Steel

First Kondratieff
1780-1830
Steam Engine,
Textile Industry
18.0

Third
Kondratieff
1880-1930
Electrification,
Chemicals

Regardless of the question of cause
and effect, industries are affected by
this process. If we analyze the Kondratieff cycles more closely, we will
notice that there are similar, shorter
cycles covering industries and minor
technological changes. Although
major changes take time, they typically consist of many of these shorter
cycles that converge into a new pathbreaking technology.
For example, the sail ship effect
is well known in innovation. It took
de cades to displace sail ships by
Fifth Kondratieff
1970-2010
Information
Technology Sixth Kondratieff
2010-20XX

Fourth
Kondratieff
1930-1970
Automobiles,
Petrochemicals

16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
(%)

6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0

2010

2001

1991

1981

1971

Financial Crisis
2008-2011
1961

1951

1941

1931

1921

1911

1901

1891

1881

1871

Great Depression
1829-1839
1861

1851

1821

-10.0

Panic of 1837
1837-1843
1841

-8.0

1831

-6.0

First and Second
Oil Crisis
1974-1980

Long Depression
1873-1879

-4.0

Rolling Ten-Year Yield on the Standard & Poor's 500
Figure 1. Crisis; the hours of birth of new megatrends. (Illustration courtesy of Global Capital Markets & Thematic Research Allianz Global Investors.)

4

IE E E E l e c t r i f i c ati o n M agaz ine / SEPTEMBER 2017



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2017

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IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2017 - Cover3
IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2017 - Cover4
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https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2022
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2021
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2020
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2019
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2018
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2017
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2016
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2015
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_march2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_june2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2014
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_december2013
https://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/pes/electrification_september2013
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