IEEE Electrification Magazine - September 2017 - 4
VIEWPOINT
The Electrification
of the Marine Industry
By Jan Emblemsvåg
LL T E C H N O LOGICAL
changes follow certain predictable patterns typically
referred to as Kondratiev (often spelled
as "Kondratieff") waves or cycles,
named after the Russian economist
Nikolai Dmitriyevich Kondratiev
(1892-1938). It is generally acknowledged that these cycles typically last
approximately 50 years for the world
economy at large. More accurate
A
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MELE.2017.2718821
Date of publication: 5 September 2017
timing, however, is not always easy to
predict, and there is also a question
regarding if it is the technological
changes that cause the Kondratieff
cycles or the economy that drives
technological changes. Although there
is no universally accepted precise
description of these waves and how
they work, most tend to agree that it
is technology that drive these cycles. It
was van Gelderen and Schumpeter
that first saw technological change in
a wide sense as a driver of these
waves (Figure 1).
Second
Kondratieff
1830-1880
Railway, Steel
First Kondratieff
1780-1830
Steam Engine,
Textile Industry
18.0
Third
Kondratieff
1880-1930
Electrification,
Chemicals
Regardless of the question of cause
and effect, industries are affected by
this process. If we analyze the Kondratieff cycles more closely, we will
notice that there are similar, shorter
cycles covering industries and minor
technological changes. Although
major changes take time, they typically consist of many of these shorter
cycles that converge into a new pathbreaking technology.
For example, the sail ship effect
is well known in innovation. It took
de cades to displace sail ships by
Fifth Kondratieff
1970-2010
Information
Technology Sixth Kondratieff
2010-20XX
Fourth
Kondratieff
1930-1970
Automobiles,
Petrochemicals
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
(%)
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
2010
2001
1991
1981
1971
Financial Crisis
2008-2011
1961
1951
1941
1931
1921
1911
1901
1891
1881
1871
Great Depression
1829-1839
1861
1851
1821
-10.0
Panic of 1837
1837-1843
1841
-8.0
1831
-6.0
First and Second
Oil Crisis
1974-1980
Long Depression
1873-1879
-4.0
Rolling Ten-Year Yield on the Standard & Poor's 500
Figure 1. Crisis; the hours of birth of new megatrends. (Illustration courtesy of Global Capital Markets & Thematic Research Allianz Global Investors.)
4
IE E E E l e c t r i f i c ati o n M agaz ine / SEPTEMBER 2017
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